The best day in a long time for woefully downtrodden Arkansas Democrats?
That would be Monday, day before yesterday.
Bill Halter’s communications fellow sent an early morning digital announcement that, indeed, as speculated, Halter was withdrawing from the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination and wishing former U.S. Rep. Mike Ross well in his suddenly unimpeded endeavor.
Here’s what had happened:
Several weeks ago local Democrats got word from national offices to suspend recruitment of prospects in the 2nd Congressional District of Central Arkansas to run against Republican Tim Griffin.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had some worthy intelligence: It knew of a large number of unregistered voters in the Second District who were likely Democrats and whom it would be willing to target for registration in the event of a viable candidate. And it had a poll showing Bill Halter running stronger than any other conceivable Democratic prospect against Griffin, if still behind.
The DCCC said it was getting ready to lean on Halter to drop out of the governor’s race—where he would lose to Ross and merely prove divisive, national and state Democrats agreed—and run for Congress.
The prospect excited two other national Democratic groups.
One was the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which believed Mark Pryor could survive in Arkansas and so desperately needed for him to do so that it was preparing to lavish the state with money and assets.
The other was the Democratic Governors Association, which doesn’t want to lose a rare Southern Democratic governorship and believed Ross, not Halter, was the more credible heir to Mike Beebe.
What would complete the trifecta would be for Halter to run in the 2nd District with the full resources of the DCCC turning out votes in the biggest county in the state, one that leans heavily Democratic in the right conditions—that being Pulaski.
The implications cascaded.
A key strategic priority for Arkansas Democrats is to try to retake the state House of Representatives, where it is in a narrow 48-51 minority. A successful Democratic gubernatorial candidacy would help that happen. A Halter candidacy in the 2nd District would enhance prospects both for Ross and Pryor.
People described Halter as being “in a state of anguish” as he tried to decide what to do. He had bowed out of a governor’s race before. He had pride. He wanted the governorship, not Congress.
Then came Ross’ first-quarter campaign-contribution report showing that the former Blue Dog congressman had raised $1.97 million to Halter’s $92,000. If he stayed in the race, Halter would need to start spending soon from the $640,000 he had personally lent his campaign.
Two things were clear: Arkansas Democratic insiders wanted Ross for governor, and national Democrats wanted Halter for Congress.
Half of that happened Monday, and the other half might yet happen.
This was all about what you call the “pre-primary,” which can be the real primary sometimes considering the dominance of money. It’s when primary combatants establish their credibility-building and fundraising bona fides.
So consider Ross’s pre-primary: He cleared the field of John Burkhalter, making the businessman and highway commissioner effectively his running mate as a lieutenant governor candidate. He raised a smashing $2 million in three months. And now he’s cleared the field entirely with Halter’s withdrawal.
Within minutes of that withdrawal, one of those noted national political handicappers, Larry Sabato, was tweeting that he was rethinking his Lean-Republican label for the Arkansas governorship in 2014.
“A very bad day for Asa,” a Republican insider messaged me, referring to Asa Hutchinson. He’s the perennial candidate and presumptive GOP nominee.
Hutchinson will face a little challenge from the Tea Party fringe in a primary while Ross saves for the general election an estimated $3 million that he had expected to be forced to spend to dispose of Halter in a primary.
So what of Halter’s running for Congress? He’s thinking on that. He’s waiting to see if there is a groundswell of encouragement. People tell me the prospects are about 50-50.
What he really wants is for the Democratic Party to clear the path for him to be the nominee against U.S. John Boozman in 2016 with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.
Running for Congress in order then to run instantly for the Senate … that would appear no more opportunistic than, say, Tom Cotton at the current time.
What I’m suggesting is that the Democrats are getting their chess pieces positioned smartly in opening moves.
But it’s a big board and long, hard way to checkmate.
John Brummett’s column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Email him at [email protected]. Read his blog at brummett.arkansasonline.com, or his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.