File today’s offering under amazing Americans I have met.
The description “free-spirited overachiever” never entered Richard Fenker’s mind as a child. In doing what came naturally, he seems to have been born with boundless curiosity and a broad creative streak within the strands of his DNA.
Whether the psychologist and emeritus professor is writing a book, photographing nature’s wonders, solving mathematical equations or “forecasting” realistic expectations for success or failure in businesses or sports teams, Fenker is the quintessential Renaissance man.
At least that’s how the scientist struck me when I met him while visiting Santa Fe a while back. He and his wife, Marilyn, today live in Galisteo, N.M., southwest of Santa Fe.
The very notion of being a forecaster is enough to arouse interest. We’re all familiar with weather forecasters. But what exactly does the ponytailed Fenker forecast? In essence, he gathers every scrap of “nano” detail possible on his object of predictive analysis and begins breaking them down according to their relationship to success or failure. That includes the teeniest details many managers would never notice. Yet when compiled and carefully analyzed, these bits of information can accurately reveal much about prospects for the whole.
In the real world today, Fenker says, too many business entities rely on misassumptions and forcing “artificial statistical frameworks” that just don’t fit reality when making decisions about how best to succeed.
He, on the other hand, says the strongest theme in his forecasting unfolds by constructing detailed models “that actually listen to the world,” then acting based on the revelations from that information to enhance prospects for success.
The psychology professor emeritus who spent 30 years at TCU has excelled as a forecaster. His clients across the globe have included our state’s Wal-Mart Corp., the Dallas Cowboys (for whom he forecasted recruiting prospects), and a fast-food chain as it searched for optimal locations. Fenker has been forecasting in the retail markets for 35 years, and published two books on the topic.
“Until college, my idea of forecasting was grounded in real things,” he said. “In astronomy you can’t get your hands on most things you are studying and predicting—so you learn to build a model of the universe based on very limited data and work from there.”
The idea of tackling a problem using very limited information has stayed with Fenker ever since. “As a psychologist studying statistical forecasting models, I learned how useful they were for some kinds of problems, but at the same time how ridiculous the assumptions that underlie statistics were for many real-world situations.”
Fenker told me he earned an astronomy degree from the Case Institute of Technology then went to work for NASA and launched a program in aeronautical engineering at Purdue. From there he switched to a Ph.D. program in psychology, specializing in cognitive psychology and artificial intelligence. He proved so bright that they admitted him to the AI program and awarded him a fellowship although he’d never had an undergraduate class in psychology.
Today the friendly artist does his forecasting, artistic photography, inventing and writing from a startup partnership called Retail Planet. His work with business associates who are better at operating the day-to-day gears of business includes his unique offering of forecasting services for large and small retailers.
“I’m still working in retail forecasting,” he said, “but the real problem that interests me is in creating a world forecasting system using the nano-logic approach I’ve described.” He says he won’t be surprised if the Internet one day evolves into a predictable form of defining global consciousness.
Fenker is enthused over his recently published book about those afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease: The Long Moment.
“The book looks at how human consciousness works and why some parts of our conscious mind are much more impacted by Alzheimer’s than others,” he said. “Then it suggests effective tools for helping middle- and late-stage Alzheimer’s patients communicate. They have much to say but because normal speech channels are largely shut down, caregivers may not be able to hear them in many cases.
He concedes that, while not considered an expert on Alzheimer’s, “the universe just delivered this book to me several years ago and said, ‘start writing.’ My family has been impacted by Alzheimer’s disease. And that history also is reflected in the book.”
“When I reflect on life, for the most part I think we tend to take things too seriously,” he added. “So I try to live gratefully, playfully and fearlessly. I work on not being afraid of any challenge and living with confidence that whatever I need, God and the universe will provide.”
Spoken like a true Renaissance forecaster, I’d say.