Rick Lee’s Oaklawn Park selections and analysis

Thursday, January 31, 2013

— FIRST POST - 1:30 P.M.Profit plays

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee has been given a fictional $1,000 bankroll to work with during the 2013 Oaklawn meeting. He can make as many plays as he wants daily.

After a poor week of wagering, it is good to realize as we move into February that the bankroll is in the black, and a flat-bet profit has been made on all 90 top selections.

Today’s card is a tough one, and I will start with three $6 exactas in the third, placing Malabar Anne over Immaculate Dream, Born to Fight and Cobra Kiss. I will finish with $20 to win on Ready Express in the seventh, and another $20 to win on I’m Cozy in the ninth.

SUNDAY’S BET $94 SUNDAY’S LOSS $46 TODAY’S BET $58 BANKROLL $1,053BEST BET Ready Express in the seventh LONG SHOT Malabar Anne in the third SUNDAY’S RESULTS 1-9 (11.1 percent) MEET 28-90 (31.2 percent) 1 Purse $15,500, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, claiming $7,500 THEODORE’S CASH was a clear maiden winner last winter at Oaklawn, he was beaten a quickly diminishing neck in his 2013 debut, and the pace figures honest enough to give him a solid chance. STATEHOOD went too fast early when finishing on even terms with the top selection, and he may go the distance if able to control a more moderate early pace. RING IT UP is taking a significant drop for a high-percentage stable and he has tactical speed, but taking a short price on a horse exiting a pair of poor efforts is not a long-term profitable play.

2 Purse $34,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $40,000 OMNISCIENT finished second in a “key” optional claiming race at Remington, and he defeated a stronger field in his first local start in 2012. BID TIL INCLUDED recorded 11 in-the-money finishes in 2012, and the Tim Ritchey trainee is wellspotted following a third-place restricted stakes showing at Delaware. ISMAEL GRANDE has not raced since April, buthe won a fast entry-level allowance race last season at Oaklawn, and trainer Mac Robertson typically brings his runners back ready to win.

3 Purse $15,500, 1 1/16 miles, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up which have never won two races, claiming $7,500 MALABAR ANNE had to overcome a sluggish start and a wide trip in a determined maiden victory at Remington, and she has moved to a winning barn and drew an advantageous two-turn post. COBRA KISS made a mild rally in a useful sprint tuneup, and she has competitive Beyer figures and is bred to carry her speed this far. IMMACULATE DREAM has proven route ability and is another who benefits from a solid sprint effort over the track.

4 Purse $15,500, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $15,000 J B’S SHYSTER was forwardly placed when finishing third behind a lone speed winner Jan. 21, and he is bred to handle a route of ground, and blinkers off may help him relax. STRAIGHTENEMUPBOY5 Purse $30,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yearolds, maiden claiming $40,000 MIDNIGHT MUSIC was beaten 5 lengths in a slightly troubled debut at Gulfstream, which earned the field’s fastest Beyer figure, and he is one-half of a strong entry with COMMON GROUND, who is dropping out of maiden allowance company and has worked exceptionally well since arriving in Hot Springs. COTTON WON has worked smartly at Oaklawn since finishing less than 2 lengths behind the winner in a maiden allowance race at Remington, and horses tend to show steady improvement for patient trainer Donnie Von Hemel. FIGHT THE POWER has the foundation to win at first asking and represents a stable that excels with this kind.

6 Purse $18,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, claiming $15,000 ANNACLONE raced evenly when overmatched in an allowance race at Fair Grounds, but the Steve Asmussen trainee is back in a conditioned claiming race and figures a late danger. OCEAN ROAD contested the pace in a competitive third-place finish at Fair Grounds, and she appears sharp and talented enough to move up a condition and win. RAHAB YOUR SOUL won an entry-level allowancehas not raced since August, but he has fired fresh in the past and possesses a sprinter’s speed and is the one to catch. REDIRON MAN was narrowly beaten in a two-turn race at Louisiana Downs, and his route experience may make the difference.

race at Lone Star Park, and the stakesplaced filly is capable if fit following an 11-week freshening.

7 Purse $53,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies, maiden special weight READY EXPRESS set a strong pace in a deceptively good fourth-place finish at Turfway, and she is wearing blinkers for the first time and tipped her hand in a rapid 5-furlong bullet workout Jan. 24. CANTICLE produced a stakes-placed showing just two back at Zia, and she chased odds-on winner Indian Clarkie in her first local try. QUEEN NEGWER finished one position behind Canticle in her local bow, and she is lightly raced and receives a break in the weights with a winning apprentice rider aboard.

8 Purse $55,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance GOLDRUSH GIRL is a graded stakesplaced filly who has kept the best company, and she is back on a preferredsurface following a troubled third-place turf finish at Churchill. LADY JENSEN easily defeated state-bred stakes rivals at Remington in a race that has already produced two next-out winners, and she would have been my top pick up regular rider Luis Quinonez would not have opted for SONGS AND SONNETS, who is making her first start on dirt following some strong works at Oaklawn.

9 Purse $15,500, 5 1/2 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $15,000 I’M COZY is a first-time starter who has the benefit of a training race victory at Evangeline, and trainer/owner Cody Autrey is especially good when running his maidens for a tag. HAPPY CAPER has shown good early speed in consecutive fourth-place finishes, and the lightly raced mare is a major player at this abbreviated distance. ONERY LOVER ran past the second selection in a secondplace finish on opening day, and the consistent filly has finished in-the-money in 7 of 10 races.

Sports, Pages 25 on 01/31/2013