Waiting in the wings

LITTLE ROCK — Let’s put Dustin McDaniel’s withdrawal from the governor’s race in context, because it’s approximately huge.

First, the governor’s race in 2014 could be the most redefining in Arkansas since 1966.

That was the year when Winthrop Rockefeller beat Justice Jim Johnson. Thus a transplanted New York Republican billionaire pried Arkansas from backward segregationist politics. That forced Arkansas Democrats to embrace progressive candidates like Dale Bumpers, David Pryor and Bill Clinton.

Since 2010, the state has experienced a Republican insurgence in legislative and congressional offices. But Arkansas remains distinct from Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.

It still has, in Mike Beebe, a descendant of that Democratic progressive era in the governor’s office.

If the Republicans hold their legislative advantages in 2014 and take the governor’s office as well, most likely with Asa Hutchinson, then the state will have been transformed wholesale into what I call Oklabama.

Take Medicaid expansion, please.

While most of those adjoining Republican governors profess to eschew it (though we’ll see), Beebe and his administration advance it assertively as a viable option. Thus it stands a fighting chance in Arkansas.

So how did McDaniel fit into this narrative? Only prominently and pivotally.

He was generally believed to be the best young Democratic talent available, the next logical descendent of the progressive Democratic era.

From Jonesboro, he had an eastern Arkansas base. He had won two statewide elections, one unopposed. He had started his candidacy and raised nearly $1.5 million.

Now the Democrats potentially face an anachronistic wide-open field.

In the olden days, Democratic gubernatorial primaries might attract a half-dozen or more candidates, producing a runoff between the top two candidates, who would get shares in the first go-rounds in the 30s or 20s.

But in modern times, with the emergence of two-party competition, nominations have been largely predetermined by the early anointing of presumptive candidates who lock up the organization and raise all the money. McDaniel had been busy doing that.

So now we might see a half-dozen or more Democratic candidates who will vie to get at least to second in the first go-round.

The ever-opportunistic Bill Halter pounced on McDaniel’s misfortune. He announced his candidacy even before McDaniel’s formal withdrawal announcement arrived in my email box.

Halter has a better resume than personal style. He is that rare Democrat who would not hold any advantage in warmth of personality over Hutchinson.

John Burkhalter, a successful businessman from Jacksonville who sits on the Highway Commission, had already been intending to run and ante up his own money.

The Democratic establishment, which had coalesced for McDaniel and hasn’t any use for Halter, is floating names of prospects to be its next Beebe Junior.

There’s Shane Broadway, who narrowly lost for lieutenant governor against the Tea Party revolt of 2010. There’s a young man in Hope, Chris Thomason, who is chancellor of the community college there and a former legislator and prosecutor.

Then there is Mike Ross, the newly retired 4th District Blue Dog congressman of substantial retail political experience and skill. He had declined to take on McDaniel, citing the fundraising required for both a competitive primary and competitive general election.

Only in the last few days, Ross left a long career in Congress and settled into a private-sector job as a vice president for the Southwest Power Pool in Little Rock.

I find it hard to imagine that Ross would make a life-changing decision such as the one just executed, then immediately reverse it.

But I’m told reliably that Ross can imagine just that and is seriously pondering getting in the race.

Ross reportedly had assured Burkhalter of his support. But that was against McDaniel.

If Ross gets in, then Broadway and Thomason stand down and Ross goes to the lead based on name identification and a South Arkansas base.

But there’s this: Our new two-party culture has made Democratic primaries more partisan and ideological. Ross’ geographic and name-identity advantages would be mitigated somewhat in a primary by liberal aversion to his Blue Dog conservatism in Congress.

Halter boasted over the weekend of having hired national consultants with experience in President Barack Obama’s campaigns.

If you’re trying to get to the high 20s or 30s in a newly ideological Democratic primary in order to get to a runoff, then you might add liberal precincts and black ones and find yourself runoff-bound right there.

Ross’ rural appeal, Halter’s liberal incarnation, Burkhalter’s money, multiple other candidates if Ross doesn’t run-that sets a pretty good stage for 2014.

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John Brummett’s column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Email him at [email protected]. Read his blog at brummett.arkansasonline.com, or his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.