Asa Hutchinson’s chances of being our next governor just went up. That’s the big effect of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel’s “inappropriate relationship” with a Hot Springs attorney.
I wrote Hutchinson off in November, right after the election. He’d tried too many times and made too many enemies, I concluded.
McDaniel’s path to the Democratic nomination was too clear.
Now the Democratic front-runner has admitted to his “relationship.” The woman involved represented clients who sued the state in fi ve different cases. The attorney general’s oftce, of course, is the state’s law fi rm.
Breaking trust with your wife is tragic and painful.
It also carries political costs. McDaniel has already paid those. Breaking trust with the public is an issue that still sticks after the embarrassment cools down.
“It had no impact on my job or the work done by the very competent and capable staff of the attorney general’s oft ce,” McDaniel said of the extramarital activities. “My staff had no knowledge of my personal interaction with her, and it had no bearing on how our oft ce handled cases involving her.”
Voters aren’t going to believe things are so simple just because the man who made the mistake says so.
McDaniel acknowledged as much in his remarks Tuesday.
Suppose I was a client of a law firm. Suppose I found the head of the law fi rm shared a bed with opposingcounsel in my case. I don’t think I’d keep that law firm - much less vote for that senior partner as he’s running for the ultimate position of public trust.
The challenge McDaniel faces is to convince the voters Gov. McDaniel would put the public interest ahead of selfishness, something he utterly failed to do in this case.
This affair was such a lapse of judgment, a reasonable person will doubt McDaniel exercised good judgment every time except this one. That’s why McDaniel had to address the issue of whether there have been other women: “I continue to hear that rumors are swirling about whether some other shoe will drop. There is no other shoe to drop. There are no other women.”
The line is drawn. If another shoe does drop, McDaniel’s race is over.
First we’ll see what this stumble does in the Democratic primary.
McDaniel built up a considerable fundraising and name recognition lead before this. The likely results of the Republican primary are a little easier to forecast. The most prominent Republican in the state who is not a U.S.
senator also happens to be the most scandal-freepublic fi gure in Arkansas.
Nobody expects any similar embarrassing revelations about Asa Hutchinson.
Let’s cut to the chase.
The strongest Republican contender I can picture against Hutchinson is U.S.
Rep. Steve Womack of Rogers. So, how would he do?
The former mayor of Rogers and current 3rd Congressional District representative could be the better general election candidate than Hutchinson. You can make that argument. However, it would be irrelevant. The question to ask is, who gets to the general electionby winning a Republican primary?
Look at Womack’s results in the 2010 primary race and runoff for his congressional seat. There’s your answer. The farther from Rogers, the worse his results. Hutchinson would split Benton County, his home, with Womack.
Womack’s two years as Fort Smith’s congressman won’t offset the fact Hutchinson lived there for his early professional and political life. The next biggest concentration of GOP votes is in central Arkansas - where Hutchinson is far better known and where he has the headquartersto his consulting business.
Hutchinson even carried Saline and Lonoke counties in the 2006 governor’s election against Mike Beebe.
Add the fact Hutchinson has run a statewide campaign before, most recently in 2006. Yes, Hutchinson lost. In the six years since, Beebe has proven to be one of the most profoundly popular public fi gures in recent Arkansas history.
A Democrat, Beebe even carried Benton County in the 2010 election. While it’s not a good thing to have crossed Beebe, there’s also little shame left in having lost to this man.
Two months ago, I wrote Asa Hutchinson “may well have more giants in his way than he has smooth rocks.” He has made lasting enemies of the two of the most popular Arkansas politicians of the last half-century: Bill Clinton and Beebe. That hasn’t changed. What has changed, though, is those giants need a viable candidate to support to block Hutchinson’s way.
Whether McDaniel is still that candidate is now an open question.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Opinion, Pages 12 on 01/13/2013