Three-quarters of Arkansas remains in some classification of drought, and despite rain across much of the state last week, it will take a long time before the parched landscape recovers, meteorologists said.
The latest report issued by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln shows that 75.5 percent of the state is considered to be between the classifications of “abnormally dry” and “extreme drought.”
Of that, a portion of 29 counties northwest of a line from Ashdown in Little River County to Calico Rock in Izard County are in “extreme drought,” which is the center’s second-worst drought classification, exceptional drought being the worst.
The center defines the severity of a drought based on rainfall amounts for the area, temperature, elevations, foliage and other variables.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture designated 47 Arkansas counties as primary natural disaster areas, making farmers eligible for low-interest emergency loans.
Long-range forecasts call for a wetter-than-normal late winter and early spring, so conditions could improve before summer heat arrives.
“There is no quick improvement in the drought because the rainfall deficit in Arkansas was so much,” said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the mitigation center.
“If you put a dent in the deficit in the winter, you may see the drought ease a little. It’s all about chipping it away slowly.”
However, most of the precipitation has fallen on the least drought-stricken areas of the state.
Within the first 24 hours of last week’s rains, Arkansas City in Desha County received 2.9 inches of rain, Eudora in Chicot County measured 2.8 inches and Monticello in Drew County recorded 2.21 inches.
In drought-stricken Northwest Arkansas, Fayetteville saw only 0.01 inch of rain during the same 24 hours and Fort Smith recorded only 0.08 inch.
Blame that on the drought, Fuchs said. Storm systems rely on moisture in the air to build, he said. If there’s no moisture available in a region, the systems weaken and move on, searching for moisture elsewhere.
“Dry soil impacts storms,” he said. “When there’s no moisture, there’s less storms. And when there’s less storms, the drought can’t improve.”
Crawford County, in Northwest Arkansas, is the only county in the state to see conditions worsen sinceNovember. The western quarter of the county has worsened to “extreme drought” status, meaning that it’s at least 4 inches below normal rainfall for that point in the year.
“Any little moisture is welcomed,” said Michelle Buchanan, a University of Arkansas cooperative extension agent in Crawford County. “The forecast has the people excited.
“Other places in the state got record snows [on Dec. 25],” she said. “We didn’t. Whenever they say we have rains coming, they seem to slide by.”
Arkansas’ drought began in early May, when 10 counties in northeast Arkansas went into what the mitigation center considers “abnormally dry” conditions.
Four weeks later, the entire state was in drought.
Since September, when Hurricane Isaac’s remnants soaked the southeastern quarter of the state, conditions have improved somewhat and will continue to do so slowly during one of the state’s “rainy seasons,” Clay said.
“Generally, the winter and early spring and in the fall is when we see our ‘rainy season,’” Clay said.
“It’s difficult to forecast far ahead, but that’s when we usually get the most rains.”
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Memphis keeps an eye on the weather forecasts when predicting levels on the Mississippi River. The drought has affected the river; officials considered closing the river to shippers earlier this year when levelsdropped near Saint Louis.
The river didn’t close, and Corps officials think conditions will slowly improve.
In Memphis, the Mississippi River measured 7.4 feet Thursday. River levels are measured by a standard point of elevation rather than by actual depth.
The river is forecast to drop 2.5 feet in 28 days, said Jeanne Burns, a hydrology technician for the Corps in Memphis.
The river is normally between 17 feet and 23 feet in January, she said.
“We’re low,” she said. “Butwe’re stable. I don’t foresee any problems ahead. It’s worse on the Upper Mississippi [above St. Louis], but they have such different dynamics than we do here.”
She said the system that produced the rainfall in Arkansas will move into the Ohio River Valley early this week. Runoff from that system will eventually end up in the Mississippi River.
“It may take time for a recovery,” Fuchs said of Arkansas’ drought. “But conditions are more positive for a recovery.
“It’s an uphill slope.”
Northwest Arkansas, Pages 11 on 01/13/2013