Spring Rain Will Determine Cattle Herds

Drought in Northwest Arkansas may have included it in a national declaration, but what farmers really want is rain.

“It’ll be decision time in another month.” said Robert Seay, Benton County extension staff chairman for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

Farmers usually watch fertilizer prices in January to judge what they can afford. This year they are watching the forecast in hopes they can grow forage for their cattle and hay to sell their neighbors, Seay said.

Fertilizer is an investment, and it needs moisture to work. Rain in February, March and April will set the tone for the coming fescue season, he said.

A teaser of August rain had people seeding pastures and spreading fertilizer, but no rain followed leaving a sour taste in many farmers’ mouths, Seay said.

“That hurt ’em because they didn’t get results,” said Dennis Alsup, former vice president of the Arkansas Cattlemen’s Association.

Alsup’s family members run 80 head of cattle near Gravette. Ponds and water sources around the area are low, but a spring keeps the cattle watered.

Drought has been building since June 2010, when rainfall was 2 inches below average, Seay said. In the past 36 months, 26 have had below average rainfall. Perfect conditions would be an inch and half of rain every three days for three weeks to saturate the ground. However, local wisdom says drought comes in three-year cycles, Seay said.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts some improvement through March in Central Arkansas, but conditions in Benton and Washington counties are expected to persist or intensify, along with most of the Midwest and Southwest.

“Even Bermuda grass got set back on its ears by this drought pattern,” Seay said.

Deep rain would replenish the subsoil moisture, which Seay compares to a savings account. The springs that feed many creeks and will eventually dry up if the groundwater is not recharged.

Although people don’t think about drought when the weather is cold the lack of moisture may affect evergreens and some ornamental plants as well,

“We won’t get a true picture of the damage until spring greens up,” Seay said.

Cattle producers in Benton County have sold down their herds because of the lack of forage, Seay said. Hauling in hay to feed the stock is like playing the stock market.

The current drought paired with high beef prices could be a life-changing moment for many farmers, Seay said. If they opt to sell their entire herd and wait out the drought pattern they could be locked out of buying back in by high cattle prices.

Warm weather is helpful because it reduces the need to buy hay, Alsup said.

“If it doesn’t rain long before spring they’re not gonna have a choice. They’re gonna have to sell,” Alsup said.

The colder it gets the more hay farmers will need to feed their cattle.

“If we have an ice storm then the hay is gonna get sucked up like a vacuum,” Seay said.

Prices for hay have shot up. Where last year it may have cost $20 to $25 a round bale, it now costs $60 to $75 and that could be substandard hay full of weeds.

The United States Department of Agriculture drought designation issued Wednesday covers 597 counties and spreads across much of Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma and north and central portions of Texas. The included counties have shown a drought intensity of at lease D2, or drought severe, for eight consecutive weeks, according to a USDA news release.

Northwest Arkansas is rated at extreme or severe drought, according to a Thursday report from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The drought declaration doesn’t mean much to farmers because it has to be repaid, Seay said.

“That was a joke,” he said.

At A Glance

Loans

Wednesday’s drought designation qualifies farmers for low-interest loans. The Farm Service Agency serving Benton, Madison and Washington said Friday the current loan rate is 2.125 percent.

Source: Staff Report

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