Tougher fight seen for Pryor in ’14 bid

— The last time U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor ran for re-election, he barely got winded. In 2014, Republicans promise to give him the race of his life.

In 2008 - a year when Democrats reclaimed the White House and gained seats in both houses of Congress - Pryor, a Democrat from Little Rock, had no Republican challenger. He cruised to an easy victory and stockpiled millions in campaign cash.

But since then, the Washington political trade press and news outlets, including CNN and USA Today,have all called Pryor “vulnerable.” He will be seeking a third term in office next year. He, along with Democratic Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, represent states where President Barack Obama fared poorly in 2012. Republicans say those three legislative seats will be top priorities in 2014.

Pryor said the Washington press corps doesn’t understand Arkansas politics. Voters in Arkansas, Pryor said, respond to individual candidates rather than voting based on party affiliation.

“A lot of times, the D.C. press sort of has a herd mentality on this stuff,” Pryor said. “My focus right now is to do my job.”

Pryor is “a high-value target,” said Arkansas’ U.S. Rep. Steve Womack, a Republican from Rogers. Womack said he is “keeping his powder dry” and has not ruled out running for the U.S. Senate. Some have speculated that Arkansas’ freshman Republican Rep. Tom Cotton of Dardanelle will make a run.

Clint Reed, a Republican political strategist in Little Rock, said Pryor is a tough candidate. There is a huge reservoir of good will for Pryor’s father, David Pryor, who was governor and a U.S. senator, that should help the senator, Reed said.

But, he said, Arkansas has become more conservative in recent years. Republicans have taken control of both chambers of the Arkansas General Assembly and all of the state’s U.S. House seats.

Pryor’s chances are made more difficult because of divisive legislative matters facing the Senate. On issues like immigration and gun control, Reed said, Pryor must respond to conservatives in the state and to his Democratic colleagues in the Senate.

“He has to thread a needle,” Reed said. “There’s no doubt Mark Pryor is vulnerable. This will be one of the most competitive races in the country.”

Former Democratic U.S.Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who lost her re-election battle to Republican John Boozman, said Pryor is a “great Arkansan” and a “thoughtful legislator.”

But he’ll have a tough time, she predicted.

“He’s going to have to work hard in this environment,” she said.

Pryor bills himself as a Democrat who can work with Republicans. He has taken conservative stances on some issues, opposing gay marriage and an assault-weapons ban. He has not taken a position on an immigration plan being pushed by a bipartisan group of eight senators that would give illegal aliens a path to citizenship and beef up border security.

He said his signature legislative accomplishment was shepherding the Consumer Product Safety Act through the Senate in 2008. The measure,which passed in the House 424-1 and in the Senate 89-3, increased funding for the Consumer Product Safety Commission, lowered the limit on lead content in many products, and imposed fines and jail time for those who don’t comply. Pryor has also said his position on the Senate Appropriations Committee would benefit Arkansas road-construction projects that need federal cash.

“I think I have a pretty good story to tell,” Pryor said.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based political newsletter, rates Pryor’s chances of holding his position at “tilt Democratic/ Toss Up.”

He said the race will be a complete tossup, but it is still early, giving the incumbent a tiny advantage.

“We put a pinky on the scale for him,” Rothenberg said.

Rothenberg said Democratic senators like Pryor who are up for re-election in 2014 can look to U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat from North Dakota, as a model for success.

He said Heitkamp faced tough odds because of Obama’s low ratings in her state. But, Rothenberg said, Heitkamp played well in the state and ran her race untethered to the Obama campaign.

“Heitkamp had a more local, rootsy persona” that helped her connect with North Dakota voters, he said.

The problem facing Pryor, Rothenberg said, is that in 2012, voters who didn’t like Obama could vote for Heitkamp and register their frustrations with Obama by voting for his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. In 2014, he said, Arkansas voters who don’t like Obama will not have that choice, making a vote against Pryor the best opportunity to vent their frustration.

Another political analyst, Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report, a Washington political trade publication, said Pryor’s seat “leans” Democratic.

“If he gets a credible opponent, I can see the race becoming a tossup,” Duffy said.

But, she said, Pryor’s fundraising talent and pedigree will be obstacles for any Republican opponent.

The value of the Pryor name “cannot be underestimated,” Duffy said.

Much has changed since 2008, the last time Pryor was up for re-election.

That year, Obama and congressional Democrats took control of the White House and the House of Representatives.

Since then, Pryor’s personal life has changed. In September, he and his wife of 20 years, Jill, divorced, and they sold their Little Rock home.

Duffy said spending on Senate elections by outside groups has increased dramatically, and she predicted that the Arkansas race will attract a lot of money, especially from national Democratic groups that don’t have many opportunities to unseat Republican senators.

“Their job is to defend every Democratic seat because there are so few Republican targets,” she said.

Landrieu, the three-term Louisiana Democrat, said she has been counted out several times in her career.

“I tell people to bet against me, but the odds are pretty much in my favor based on past performance,” she said. “They’ll target Mark, and they’ll pick on him. But he has an excellent chance to be re-elected.”

Landrieu said she plans to raise at least $1 million a quarter between now and November 2014.

Pryor, who said he has not set fundraising goals yet, has more than $1.7 million on hand.

On March 16, Pryor is to begin his campaign at a Little Rock event that will be attended by former President Bill Clinton.

“If people know I’m working hard, 2014 falls into place pretty well,” Pryor said.

Front Section, Pages 1 on 02/25/2013

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