LITTLE ROCK — Few people outside Tucson believe Arizona’s baseball team has a chance to repeat as national champion. Pacific-12 coaches have pegged the Wildcats as middle of the pack in the conference, and their highest ranking in the national polls is No. 14.
Coach Andy Lopez pays no attention to the prognosticators.
“There are probably 25 teams right now that have a realistic chance of saying, ‘If we play well at the right time, at the end of the season, we have as much right as anybody to play for it all,’ ” Lopez said. “I’d like to feel that we’re one of those teams.It’s not like we lost an entire program.”
The Wildcats lost five everyday players and their staff ace from the team that went 10-0 in the postseason and thwarted South Carolina’s bid for a third consecutive championship at the College World Series in Omaha, Neb.
“Obviously, we’ve lost some key guys,” Lopez said. “Who hasn’t when you have a junior class and professional baseball exists? But I don’t ever show up in a season thinking that it can’t be done, because there are too many things that have been done when people have said it can’t be done.”
If the Wildcats need inspiration, all they have to do is look at the last Pac-12 team to win a national title.
In 2007, Oregon State lost six everyday players and its top two pitchers from its 2006 championship team. The Beavers were lightly regarded in the preseason, struggled until the middle of the conference season and sneaked into the NCAA Tournament after a late-season surge. The Beavers fought off elimination three times in regionals and twice in super regionals before winning five consecutive games at the CWS to repeat.
Arizona (48-17 in 2012) opens its title defense at home Friday with a three-game series against Coppin State.
Arkansas, North Carolina and Vanderbilt are among the teams expected to make strong runs at making it to the CWS.
The Razorbacks (46-22) are No. 1 in the nation in three polls on the strength of five returning position players and 10 pitchers. They also are the coaches’ pick to win the SEC after going 46-22 and tying for third in the CWS.
How far the Hogs go will depend on its pitching. Righthander Ryne Stanek, with his mid-90s fastball, is regarded as the SEC’s top draft prospect this year after going 8-4 with a 2.82 ERA in 17 games last season. Barrett Astin pitched in a team-high 32 games, 29 out of the bullpen, and recorded 11 saves with a 1.99 ERA. Colby Suggs was 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .203 average.
North Carolina, which has missed the CWS two of the past three years after making it four years in a row, shouldbe back in the hunt for its first national title. The Tar Heels have their top three starting pitchers back from their 46-16 team. Kent Emanuel, Benton Moss and Hobbs Johnson all had ERAs under 2.00.
Coach Mike Fox said he knows the strength of his pitching makes North Carolina a popular pick, but he pointed out that the Tar Heels could drop off behind the plate with the exit of Jacob Stallings, and they need to develop a proven closer.
“We all know those last 3-6 outs of the game are the hardest, and we don’t know who’s going to fill that void for us,” Fox said. “That’s a question mark for us - big one.”
Plus, Fox said the Tar Heels have to survive an Atlantic Coast Conference schedule that includes a North Carolina State program that is on the rise and traditional powers in Florida State and Georgia Tech. The nonconference schedule has the Tar Heels playing 2012 CWS surprise entry Stony Brook next week and a March trip to Houston to play Rice, California andTexas A&M.
Vanderbilt (35-22) is wellpositioned for a strong season with a mix of young players from recruiting classes ranked best in the nation two years in a row and veteran players who appeared in the CWS two years ago.
Coach Tim Corbin said catcher Spencer Navin is on the verge of breaking out after batting .298 with 13 extra-base hits and throwing out 20 base stealers. Tony Kemp, who moved from left field to second base in the middle of last season, stole 21 bases and is tied for the school record with 15 career triples.
First baseman Conrad Gregor hit .328 with three home runs, and senior outfielders Connor Harrell and Mike Yastrzemski had a combined 13 home runs and 67 RBI. Corbin said the Commodores go into the season unsettled at shortstop and third base.
T.J. Pecoraro (2-4, 3.40) came off elbow-ligament replacement surgery to lead the pitching staff, and Corbinlikes the potential of Tyler Beede and left-hander Kevin Ziomek.
Stanford (41-18), with star pitcher Mark Appel and a young lineup that is loaded with offensive potential, is picked to win the Pac-12 and will bid for its first trip to Omaha since 2008. North Carolina State, which made its only CWS appearance 45 years ago, has one of the nation’s most dynamic players in shortstop Trea Turner and perhaps the nation’s best left-handed pitcher in Carlos Rodon.
Chad Holbrook takes over as coach for Ray Tanner at South Carolina, and the Gamecocks return key pieces of the team that made it to the CWS final for the third year in a row. Raph Rhymes, who led the nation with a .431 average, and pitchers Aaron Nola and Ryan Eades have LSU believing it can make it to Omaha for the first timesince 2009.
And surely there will be surprise teams like Stony Brook and Kent State were a year ago.
Other teams to watch
A capsule look at some of the top college baseball teams expected to contend with No. 1-ranked Arkansas this season (coaches’ records at current schools entering season): NORTH CAROLINA COACH Mike Fox (635-262-1, 15th season) LAST SEASON 46-16, NCAA regionals KEY PLAYERS LHP Kent Emanuel (8-4, 1.96 ERA), RHP Benton Moss (7-2, 1.94), LHP Hobbs Johnson (7-1, 1.56 ERA), 3B Colin Moran (.365, 3 HRs, 35 RBI), CF Chaz Frank (.293, 39 RBI, 16 SB), 1B Cody Stubbs (.258, 5 HRs, 35 RBI), DH Brian Holbertson (.297, 1, 15) EXTRA BASES Tar Heels return their weekend rotation, which combined for 22 victories and all posted sub-2.00 ERAs. North Carolina’s 2.66 team ERA was fourth in the nation, and staff’s 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings were seventh. ... North Carolina took average of 4.9 walks a game, fourth-most in country. ... Moran’s .365 average was best on the team, and he brings .347 career average and two-year total of 106 RBI into season. ... The bullpen lost All-American Michael Morin, whose 19 saves ranked second nationally, but there’s still ample depth.
VANDERBILT COACH Tim Corbin (411-217, 11th season) LAST SEASON 35-28, NCAA regionals KEY PLAYERS RF Mike Yastrzemski (.286, 6 HRs, 41 RBI), CF Connor Harrell (.241, 7, 26), 1B Conrad Gregor (.328, 3, 35), 2B Tony Kemp (.261, 1, 31, 21 SB), C Spencer Navin (.298, 3 HRs, 27 RBI), RHP T.J. Pecoraro (2-4, 3.40 ERA), LHP Kevin Ziomek (5-6, 5.22), RHP Tyler Beede (1-5, 4.52) EXTRA BASES Commodores won 28 of their last 41 games and would have gone to super regionals if they hadn’t blown a six-run lead in the last two innings against North Carolina State in regional final. ... Scott Brown, formerly at St. John’s, was hired last fall as pitching coach. ... Commodores lost second-rounder Sam Selman and fourth-rounder Drew Verhagen to pro ball, but the weekend rotation returns. Brian Miller is centerpiece of a young bullpen that figures to get better with time. ... Commodores signed a second consecutive recruiting class widely regarded as best in the nation.
SOUTH CAROLINA COACH Chad Holbrook, first season LAST SEASON 49-20, College World Series runner-upKEY PLAYERS 1B L.B. Dantzler (.262, 10 HRs, 48 RBI), SS Joey Pankake (.264, 2, 27), CF Tanner English (.298, 0, 23), C Grayson Greiner (.222, 6, 32), RHP Colby Holmes (7-2, 3.05 ERA), LHP Jordan Montgomery (6-1, 3.62), LHP Tyler Webb (6-1, 1.56) EXTRA BASES Holbrook takes over for Ray Tanner, who became the Gamecocks’ athletic director. Holbrook was Tanner’s top lieutenant for four years and served as his recruiting coordinator. ... Gamecocks fell short of winning a third consecutive national championship, losing to Arizona in the CWS final. ... Team loses great leadership in lefthander Michael Roth, who always came up big at the CWS, and slugger Christian Walker. But Gamecocks still return six position starters and 13 pitchers... Dantzler will move from third to first base and Chase Vergason from second to third and Tanner English from left field to center. Freshman Max Schrock is projected starter at second.
STANFORD COACH Mark Marquess (1,504-777-7, 37th season) LAST SEASON 41-18, NCAA super regional KEY PLAYERS RHP Mark Appel (10-2, 2.56 ERA), LHP John Hochstatter (3-3, 4.53), RF Austin Wilson (.285, 10, HRs, 54 RBI), 1B Brian Ragira (.329, 5, 50), 3B Alex Blandino (.294, 8, 40), RHP AJ Vanegas (4-0, 2.62), 2B Danny Diekroeger (.354, 3, 10), SS Lonnie Kauppila, Jr. (.280, 0, 13) EXTRA BASES Cardinal is the coaches’ choice to win the Pacific-12. ... Appel was eighth pick overall in 2012 draft (Pittsburgh Pirates) and only firstround pick to not sign. ... Appel is the nation’s only player to repeat as a preseason first-team All-American by Baseball America. Appel was the only unanimous selection in the scouting director balloting. ... Closer A.J. Vanegas (herniated disc) is expected to be out until late March. ... Dominic Jose, son of former major-leaguer Felix Jose, will be the first-year starter in left field. ... Kauppila is coming off offseason knee surgery.
LSU COACH Paul Mainieri (258-122-2, seventh season) LAST SEASON 47-18, NCAA super regional KEY PLAYERS 2B JaCoby Jones (.253, 4 HRs, 29 RBI), C Ty Ross (.292, 3, 41), RHP Ryan Eades (5-3, 3.83 ERA), LF Raph Rhymes (.431, 4, 53), 1B Mason Katz (.320, 13, 52), RHP Aaron Nola (7-4, 3.61), RHP Nick Rumbelow, Jr.(0-0, 3.65) EXTRA BASES LSU will be looking to get back to the CWS for the first time since 2009 after getting stunned at home by Stony Brook in super regionals. ... Rhymes is returning SEC Player of the Year and nation’s top returning hitter. ... Katz is the leading returning home-run hitter (13)... Nola and Eades take over as co-aces after the departure of Kevin Gausman (12-2, 2.77), who struck out 135 in 123 2/3 innings and was the first pitcher taken in the draft (Baltimore Orioles).
UCLA COACH John Savage (275-207, ninth season) LAST SEASON 48-16, College World Series KEY PLAYERS RHP Adam Plutko (12-3, 2.48 ERA), RHP Nick Vander Tuig (10-4, 4.43), LHP Grant Watson (9-2, 4.45), 1B Cody Regis (.239, 1 HR, 25 RBI), SS Pat Valaika (.266, 1, 39), 2B Kevin Williams (.302, 2, 21) EXTRA BASE: UCLA’s 48 victories last season were second-most in program history, and Bruins won a second consecutive Pac-12 title for first time. ... Bruins are picked second behind Stanford in Pac-12. ... Last year’s top five batters, and 18 of the team’s 23 home runs, are gone. Regis has proven power, after hitting 15 home runs his first two seasons, but he homered just once in 2012. ... Reliever David Berg led nation with 50 appearances, and his Pac-12-leading 1.46 ERA ranked fourth on UCLA’s single-season list.
OREGON STATE COACH Pat Casey (617-376-4, 19th season) LAST SEASON 40-20, NCAA regional KEY PLAYERS LF Michael Conforto (.349, 13 HRs, 76 RBI), 1B Danny Hayes (.307, 5, 27), DH Dylan Davis (.247, 3, 30), SS Tyler Smith (.343, 1, 39), LHP Ben Wetzler (8-2, 3.10 ERA), RHP Dan Child (6-4, 2.95), LHP Matt Boyd (4-0, 3.41) EXTRA BASES Conforto’s 76 RBI were a school record. ... Beavers have appeared in NCAA Tournament a program-record four consecutive years and will be trying for a third consecutive 40-victory season. ... Oregon State won national titles in 2006-07, but no current players have CWS experience. ... The Beavers played 19 one-run games, winning 10. ... Oregon State was 27-0 when scoring six or more runs and 18-0 when holding opponents to two runs or less. ... Smith batted .343 after going into last season with a .236 career average.
Sports, Pages 27 on 02/13/2013