Consumer spending up 0.5%

November’s Yule shoppers propel biggest rise since June

WASHINGTON - Consumer spending rose in November by the most in five months as discounts drew early Christmas shoppers, giving the U.S. economy a little momentum at the end of 2013.

Consumer spending rose0.5 percent from October, when spending had risen 0.4 percent, the Commerce Department said Monday. It was the best showing since June. The gain was driven by a jump in spending on long-lasting durable goods such as autos.

Consumers’ income rose 0.2 percent, an improvement from a 0.1 percent decline in October. Wages and salaries, the most important component of income, rose a solid 0.4 percent. That gain reflected strength in the private sector and a modest gain in government pay.

Consumer spending is closely followed because it accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity.The strong November showing suggests solid economic growth this quarter.

“Jobs are growing, confidence is growing, households and asset values are climbing,” said Paul Edelstein, director of financial economics at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Mass., who correctly projected the gain in spending. “There appears to be some sort of gathering momentum in the economy.”

Steady hiring and modest wage gains have increased consumer confidence and given Americans more money to spend. At the same time, higher stock and home prices have driven up household wealth and made some people more comfortable about spending.

“Moods are getting better, and we’re starting to see consumers get a little more active,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. in New York. “We may have a chance to see one of the best quarters for spending so far in this expansion.”

The big rise in spending and smaller income gain meant that the personal saving rate slipped a bit to 4.2 percent of after-tax income in November. That was down from 4.5 percent in October.

An inflation gauge tied to consumer spending that is closely followed by the Federal Reserve showed that inflation is still running well below the Fed’s target. Prices were unchanged in November and have risen just 0.9 percent over the past 12 months. The Fed’s target for annual inflation is 2 percent.

The economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the July-September quarter, the government said Friday in its third and final estimate. The government’s figure was up from its previous estimate of a 3.6 percent annual growth rate for the third quarter. Nearly all of the upward revision reflected faster spending for consumers, a possible sign of momentum entering the final three months of the year.

The 4.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter was the best performance in nearly two years. It was only the second time since the economic recovery began in mid-2009 that annual growth in any quarter has topped 4 percent.

Economists caution that growth will likely slow in the October-December period. That’s because two-fifths of last quarter’s gain came from an unusually large buildup in business stockpiles - something not likely to be repeated this quarter.

But analysts were encouraged by the recent acceleration in spending and say rising job growth could fuel more spending in coming months. Many analysts believe the economy’s annual growth rate will slow to between 2 percent and 2.5 percent this quarter because of the expected drag from slower stockpiling. But some said the better-than-expected spending could mean more strength than expected and a stronger start to 2014.

“Consumers are spending at the fastest rate this quarter than anytime since 2010,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. “With numbers like these, tomorrow is shaping up to be the better tomorrow we have wanted to see ever since the recession ended almost five years ago.”

President Barack Obama took note last week of the encouraging reports, including four straight months of solid job gains. That spurt of hiring has helped lower the unemployment rate to 7 percent, a five-year low.

The drag created earlier this year by the end of a temporary payroll tax break and across-the-board spending cuts has shaved an estimated1.5 percentage points from economic growth this year, which analysts think will be around 1.8 percent. But the effects will lessen next year, something economists note in their forecasts for around 2.5 percent growth or better in 2014.

A stronger outlook for the economy and job market led the Fed last week to begin winding down its bond-buying program. The Fed’s bond purchases have been intended to lower long-term interest rates and encourage more borrowing and spending.

The Fed said that it would begin reducing its $85 billion-a-month in bond purchases by $10 billion in January. Chairman Ben Bernanke said that if the economy keeps improving, the bond purchases could be trimmed by similar amounts at coming meetings.

Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the stronger spending in October and November validates the Fed’s decision to pare its bond purchases. At the same time, tepid inflation allows the Fed to make only modest reductions in its bond purchases without fear of igniting price increases.

The report of stronger-than-expected spending in late November was tempered Monday by a separate report that Christmas shopping is lagging during what is traditionally the busiest buying period of the year.

Sales at U.S. stores dropped 3.1 percent to $42.7 billion for the week that ended on Sunday compared with the same week last year, according to ShopperTrak, which tracks data at 40,000 locations. That’s after a decline of 2.9 percent and 0.8 percent during the first and second weeks of the month, respectively.

The numbers, which don’t include online sales, are another challenge in what has largely been a disappointing Christmas shopping season for stores. The two-month period that begins on Nov. 1 is important for retailers because they can make up to 40 percent of their annual sales during that time.

Retailers started the season cautiously optimistic. But after a strong start through most of November - Shoppertrak said sales were up 3.4 percent for the month - stores have found it increasingly hard to attract shoppers despite big discounts and expanded hours during the final days.

“It’s been a mediocre December,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak.

Information for this article was contributed by Martin Crutsinger and Anne D’Innocenzio of The Associated Press and Lorraine Woellert, Shobhana Chandra and Kristy Scheuble of Bloomberg News.

Front Section, Pages 1 on 12/24/2013

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