Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel last week described the flight of the main U.S. ally in Syria-General Alim Idris, leader of the Free Syrian Army-and the loss of U.S.-supplied FSA equipment to Islamist rebels as “a big problem.” That’s putting it mildly. This setback makes plain the failure of U.S. policy and the need to rethink.
As the United States and Britain suspend aid to the rebels and diplomats wonder who will represent the opposition to Bashar Assad at next month’s planned peace talks in Switzerland, it’s worth taking stock of just how bad the situation in Syria has become:
-About 2.3 million refugees and more than 6.5 million internally displaced people are preparing for winter. The death toll continues to rise, with the current estimate at 126,000.
-Assad’s forces, with help from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are winning back territory across the country.
-Militants and gangs have taken to kidnapping human-rights workers and hold more than 30 journalists, making it even harder to provide aid or report on the conflict.
-The number of foreign jihadis now fighting in Syria, estimated at 5,000, may have surpassed all previous conflicts, including Afghanistan in the 1980s.
-The pro-secular FSA is in a state of collapse, and the effective rebel forces now consistof rival Islamist groups that want to make Syria an Islamic state.
Put aside for the moment whether more resolute U.S. policies could have avoided this mess. Regardless, a rethink is now required. The ends and means of U.S. policy-that Assad must go, but without significant U.S. military intervention-are no longer compatible.
The pretense that the next round of talks is about getting the regime and opposition together to decide whether Assad leaves now or later should be dropped. The goal of the talks should be to get Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar together with Iran and Russia to de-escalate what has become a proxy war.
Syria’s civil war could drag on for years. Because they can’t or won’t end it, the U.S., the Gulf states, Iran, Russia and Turkey should concentrate on the limited achievable interests they have in common-suppressing al-Qaida and reducing the human toll.
Editorial, Pages 78 on 12/15/2013