Championship weekend has a history of ruining some BCS title game plans. Sometimes when it’s least anticipated.

But the top two teams in the standings going into the last week have remained there the past three years. No. 1 Florida State and No. 2 Ohio State hope that trend extends to a fourth consecutive season, but there are complications.

Even if Florida State (Atlantic Coast Conference) and Ohio State (Big Ten) win their respective championship games against Duke and Michigan State, the winner of the SEC Championship Game can argue it deserves a spot over Ohio State, which has not played a team ranked higher than No. 16 in the polls during the past two years.

The SEC game, which kicks off at 3 p.m. in Atlanta, will be over first today, so No. 3 Auburn or No. 5 Missouri can park in front of a TV and pull for Duke or Michigan State. The Pacific-12 is the under card, despite the fact that the Arizona State-Stanford winner earns a spot in the Rose Bowl, which is always a worthy consolation prize for a team not making it to the BCS Championship Game.

Much more meaningful stuff will be taking place in Charlotte, N.C., and Indianapolis.

In the ACC, Florida State gets No. 20 Duke. The Blue Devils, the Coastal Division champions, have won eight in a row under David Cutcliffe. They started the season 2-2, losing by 24 to Georgia Tech and by three to Pitt, both at home, where they also beat6-6 Troy by seven. They have lost 18 consecutive to Florida State, or every time they have ever played.

Florida State, picked second in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson (which it beat by 37 on the road), hasn’t won by fewer than 14. That was in September. Its average margin of victory is 42. If the Blue Devils somehow find a way, Cutcliffe might consider ditching his headset and heading off into the sunset because it can’t possibly get any better. The Seminoles made it to the first three BCS finals. They won once, in 1999.

In the Big Ten, Michigan States faces an Ohio State team that hasn’t lost a game since 2011, when Urban Meyer was a TV analyst. In two years in Columbus his team has yet to play a top-10 team, until tonight. Michigan State comes into the game ranked 10th.

The Spartans, who went unbeaten in the conference for the first time since 1966, lost at No. 22 Notre Dame by four and won by 23 at home against No. 21 Michigan, which came within a late two-point conversion pass of derailing the Buckeyes. Michigan State can defend, Ohio State scores.

The Buckeyes have won eight of the past nine meetings. The loss was two years ago, by three, at the Horseshoe. Last year Ohio State won by one in East Lansing. A Michigan State victory guarantees it a trip to the Rose Bowl, where it hasn’t been in a quarter-century. The Spartans might get there even with a loss. The Buckeyes are thinking slightly bigger.

Real intrigue develops if Ohio State wins a real close, maybe even an ugly game and Auburn drills Missouri. The Buckeyes figure to get to their fourth BCS final because unbeaten is unbeaten. They beat Miami in 2002 and were rolled by Florida in 2006 and LSU a year later.

Meyer was Florida’s coach in 2006. He earned another ring in 2008, part of the SEC’s current seven-year run. Even folks in Columbus should grudgingly concede that Ohio State might have had a difficult time running the table if its schedule included at LSU and Texas A&M and at home against Georgia and Alabama. And at least three or four SEC teams might have been able to beat Wisconsin at home. Or Northwestern on the road. But Auburn has to beat Missouri in Atlanta, which is no minor detail. And if Missouri beats the team that just beat Alabama, it can make an argument to leapfrog Ohio State. Missouri’s only loss was by three in double overtime at home to South Carolina.

The SEC Championship loser won’t even go to a BCS bowl. Alabama will, unless Florida State and Ohio State both go down. Then, there would probably be an all-SEC final for the second time in three years.

The Big 12 hasn’t had a title game since 2010, but No. 6 Oklahoma State will win if it beats Oklahoma at home. Oklahoma State, the only team to beat Baylor, has lost nine of the past 10 meetings to its instate rival. The victory was two years ago, by 34 at home. Last year it went to overtime.

If Oklahoma wins, Baylor gets its first BCS bowl bid. The Bears might get an at-large berth anyway, if they beat Texas at home. Baylor has won two of the past three against Texas after losing 16 of 17 from 1993-2009. Last year it was 56-50 Longhorns in Austin.

In the American Athletic Conference, which will have a title game next year, Central Florida is the champion and is in a BCS game, no matter what it does today against SMU. The Knights clinched the title late Thursday night when No. 19 Louisville beat Cincinnati 31-24 in overtime. Central Florida, 16th in the BCS, could draw Alabama in the Orange Bowl, which sure beats settling for a spot in the Buffalo Wild Wings game.

TODAY’S CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES THAT MATTER

SEC No. 3 Auburn vs. No. 5 Missouri

WHEN 3 p.m. Central WHERE Georgia Dome, Atlanta RECORDS Auburn 11-1, Missouri 11-1 LINE Auburn by 1 TV CBS

BIG TEN No. 10 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Ohio State

WHEN 7 p.m. Central

WHERE Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

RECORDS Michigan State 11-1, Ohio State 12-0

LINE Ohio State by 5 1/2

TV Fox

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE No. 20 Duke vs. No. 1 Florida State

WHEN 7 p.m. Central WHERE Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

RECORDS Duke 10-2, Florida State 12-0 LINE Florida State by 29 TV ABC

Sports, Pages 19 on 12/07/2013