NBA playoff capsules

A look at the eight first-round series in the NBA playoffs:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NO. 1 MIAMI HEAT (66-16) VS.NO. 8 MILWAUKEE BUCKS (38-44)

SEASON SERIES Heat won, 3-1. Milwaukee took Miami to overtime in the firstmeeting this season before losing 113-106, then won a wild game in December where the Bucks led by 12 at halftime, trailed by two entering the fourth, then outscored Miami 35-14 in the final 12 minutes for a 104-85 romp. But the Heat won 107-94 on the road in March and then 94-83 at home last week.

STORY LINE The Heat, in search of a second consecutive title, finished with the NBA’s best record in the regular season, including a 27-game winning streak. The Bucks haven’t won a playoff series since 2001 and lost 12 of their final 16 games.

KEY MATCHUP Lebron James vs. everybody. The Bucks will have to send a bunch of different bodies and looks toward the reigning MVP in an effort to keep him guessing and to get the Heat offense out of sorts. Milwaukee’s only victory against Miami this season was a game where the Bucks had a 25-2 edge in points off turnovers. They’ll need massive efforts like that again in this series.

X-FACTOR Larry Sanders, only because he averaged one technical foul every 24 minutes against Miami this season and he’ll need to be on the floor for Milwaukee to succeed in its quest to at least slow Chris Bosh.

PREDICTION Heat in 5.

NO. 2 NY KNICKS (54-28) VS. NO. 7 BOSTON CELTICS (41-40) SEASON SERIES Knicks won, 3-1, taking the season series for the first time since 2003-2004, also the last time it won twice in Boston. Carmelo Anthony averaged 25.3 points but made his biggest news off the court when he confronted Kevin Garnett outside Boston’s team bus after the two exchanged words during the Celtics’ 102-96 victory in New York on Jan. 7. The Knicks won the last three meetings.

STORY LINE The Knicks, trying to win a playoff series for the first time since 2000, ended the Celtics’ five-year reign as Atlantic Division champions with their first division title since 1994. Boston has never lost in the first round with Garnett and Paul Pierce.

KEY MATCHUP Tyson Chandler vs. Garnett. Neither center, both former defensive players of the year, appeared in the final two meetings, and Garnett’s absence was particularly noticed when the Knicks scored 100 or more in both games. Chandler missed most of the final weeks with a bulging disk but is expected to play.

X-FACTOR Chris Copeland. The former European pro player has become a surprising contributor in his rookie NBA season for the Knicks and seems to have found a place in the rotation. He scored 22 in the last meeting against Boston and had two 30-point games to end the regular season.

PREDICTION Knicks in 7.

NO. 3 INDIANA PACERS (49-32) VS. NO. 6 ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38) SEASON SERIES Tied, 2-2. Both teams went 2-0 at home. Here is how even the season series was: The Pacers outscored the Hawks 400-395 in the four games while the Hawks held slight edges in rebounding (164-163), points inside (160-154) and fast-break points(51-48).

STORY LINE If there is a series that will wind up being a grind-it-out, low-scoring one in the opening round, this one is the most likely candidate. Pacers come in having lost 5 of 6; and Hawks, 11-15 since the start of March, fell out of Miami’s side of the East bracket.

KEY MATCHUP David West vs. Josh Smith. Whichever guy plays better will probably lead his team to victory. West’s 54 percent field-goal shooting since the All-Star break suggests he is in the type of form the Pacers would want. Smith could be playing his final games with the Hawks with free agency looming this summer. His approach to this series might give some hints as to whether his bags are already packed.

X-FACTOR Frank Vogel. The Indiana coach turned into a master motivator last season when Indiana ended up losing to Miami in six games, although it was a series where the Pacers had the eventual champions down 2-1. Indiana could be dangerous if Vogel can get the “gold swagger” mode back.

PREDICTION Pacers in 6.

NO. 4 BROOKLYN NETS (49-33) VS. NO. 5 CHICAGO BULLS (45-37) SEASON SERIES Bulls won, 3-1. Chicago had an 11-point victory, while the other three games were decided by 4 points,2 and 1. The Bulls, never fully healthy, were without Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich in their lone loss, a 93-89 defeat Feb. 1in Brooklyn.

STORY LINE The franchise’s first season in Brooklyn has resulted in the Nets’ first playoff appearance since 2007; the Bulls made it to the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff standings even while playing all season without Derrick Rose. KEY MATCHUP Deron Williams vs. Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson (or possibly Derrick Rose). Williams played well in the season’s second half after receiving treatment for his ankles around the All-Star break. Rose could play, unlikely as it seems, after sitting out all season after major knee surgery. The Bulls have gotten by without him thanks in part to Robinson, who had three 12-point games against Brooklyn.

X-FACTOR Reggie Evans had some decent scoring nights in the second half to go with his usual strong rebounding, but he didn’t manage a basket in three of the four games against Chicago. He was 4 of 5 in the one Nets victory, and Brooklyn will need some offense along with his defense on Carlos Boozer.

PREDICTION Nets in 7.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

NO. 1 OKC THUNDER (60-22) VS. NO. 8 HOUSTON ROCKETS (45-37) SEASON SERIES Thunder won series, 2-1. Oklahoma City won two blowouts before the Rockets pulled out a 122-119 home victory Feb. 20 behind 46 points from James Harden.

STORY LINE James Hardin was dealt to the Rockets in a blockbuster preseason trade, and even though the teams met three times during the regular season, emotions will be running high on both sides.

KEY MATCHUP Russell Westbrook vs. Jeremy Lin. Lin helped his team reach the playoffs in his first full season as a starter and had a terrific performance in Houston’s victory over Oklahoma City,finishing with 29 points, 8 assists and 6 rebounds. But his first playoff appearance comes against a dominant point guard in Westbrook, who twice scored 28 points against the Rockets.

X-FACTOR Patrick Beverley. The Rockets aren’t afraid to give the backup point guard big minutes, and they might need to use the former Arkansas Razorbacks standout if Westbrook’s quickness is too much for Lin.

PREDICTION Thunder in 5.

NO. 2 SAN ANTONIO (58-24) VS. NO. 7 LA LAKERS (45-37) SEASON SERIES Spurs won, 2-1. Los Angeles prevented a sweep with a 91-86 victory Sunday in its first game after losing Kobe Bryant to a season-ending injury. The Spurs took the other two by a combined five points.

STORY LINE The Lakers managed to make the postseason without Kobe Bryant, who tore his Achilles’ tendon last week, winning their final five games to finish seventh and ending up opposite the Spurs, who battled injuries down the stretch and couldn’t hold off Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed. KEY MATCHUP Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter vs. Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. With Bryant gone and SteveNash sidelined down the stretch, the Lakers reinvented themselves as an inside team, looking little like the usual Mike D’Antoni offense. Duncan, still near the top of his game as he turns 37 next week, and Splitter will have to control them while scoring themselves.

X-FACTOR Steve Blake. He started in Nash’s place down the stretch and was particularly good after Bryant was lost, scoring 23 and 24 points in his final two games.

PREDICTION Spurs in 6.

NO. 3 DENVER NUGGETS (57-25) VS. NO. 6 GS WARRIORS (47-35) SEASON SERIES Nuggets won, 3-1. The teams met three times in a three-week span in November and Denver nearly won them all, taking a double-overtime victory on the road in the first meeting and then winning at home and falling 106-105 on the road. They haven’t played since Jan. 13, a 116-105 home victory for the Nuggets.

STORY LINE Mark Jackson’s team will have to guard against the just-happy-to be-here syndrome, as the Warriors are making their second playoff appearance in 19 years. Even without Danilo Gallinari (torn ACL), the Nuggets have to think they can make a deep run, given their 23-game home winning streak.

KEY MATCHUP Ty Lawson vs. Stephen Curry. Lawson won’t have to do it alone, but the safest way for Denver to grab control of this series would be to not allow Curry - the league’s newly crowned single-season three-point record-holder - to shoot the Warriors into the second round. It’ll be interesting to see how keeping at least one eye on Curry on one end will affect Lawson’s scoring.

X-FACTOR David Lee. He’s a two-time All-Star, an eight-year veteran and not only is this his first time in the NBA playoffs, but it’s his first time playing for a team that won more than 36 games. That’s right. His most recent postseason game was against Villanova.

PREDICTION Nuggets in 7.

NO. 4 LA CLIPPERS (56-26) VS. NO. 5 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (56-26) SEASON SERIES Clippers won, 3-1. The Clippers won both games in Memphis, and the Grizzlies split two in L.A.

STORY LINE Two 56-victory teams meeting in the first round? The Clippers went into Memphis and won a Game 7 to reach the second round of the playoffs last season. The Clippers are clearly the more high-octane team, while the Grizzlies play with a defensive ruggedness probably not found anywhere else in the West.

KEY MATCHUP Chris Paul vs. Mike Conley. Paul is an absolute superstar, and the Clippers will probably go as far as he takes them, but Conley isn’t far off from joining that elite level of player in this league. The head to-head edge in the regular season clearly went to Paul, as Conley shot 30 percent in the four games and Paul posted a nearly 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

X-FACTOR Marc Gasol. A strong defensive player of the year candidate, he shot 52 percent in the series against the Clippers last season. If he matches that, there will be an “upset” alert, though one 56-victory club topping another would hardly be considered an upset.

PREDICTION Grizzlies in 7.