What Issues Draw Voters Most?

Long lines have greeted early voters this year in many locations in Arkansas. Is that merely a reflection of the growing popularity of early voting or evidence of a largerthan-normal turnout for the 2012 elections?

The question can’t be answered until after the Nov. 6 vote, but the early turnout is probably more about the convenience than the ballot content this year. If so, the number of votes cast at the polls on election day will drop off. If not, the turnout will keep rising.

What could cause that to happen?

A presidential race ordinarily pulls more voters out and this one surely has, although Arkansas’ preference is terribly predictable. Polls and the virtual absence of both the Obama and Romney campaigns in this state confirm the likelihood that Arkansas’ six electoral votes will go to Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger to President Obama, the Democratic incumbent.

There are no candidates for statewide oft ce on this year’s ballot, although there are contests for all four congressional districts. Again, early expectations are thoseraces will all go to Republicans, three of whom are incumbents. So the congressional races probably aren’t behind the early turnout.

There are three statewide ballot issues and a couple of them probably are helping to draw some voters out.

Issue No. 1 is a half-cent sales tax for highways, which may be the stronger pull both for highway supporters and for anti-tax voters. There has been a lot of advertising for Issue No. 1 as well as promotion of the idea within civic groups and public bodies.

It is designed not only to provide new funds for state highways but also for cities and counties. Nevertheless, this is a tax issue and no tax question is universally supported. Plus, the proposal makes a major shift in state tax policy, allowing use of the sales tax for highways. That may cause some concern.

Issue No. 2 is a lesspublicized proposal for the creation of development or redevelopment projects to be funded by bond issues retired with revenue from increased sales taxes generated by the projects.

The multipurpose ballot issue also allows local voters to issue bonds to retire unfunded liabilities of closed police and fi re pension funds and pass sales taxes to pay off those bonds. Issue No. 2’s only champions are the governments that might make use of its lesser provisions and the developers who want sales taxes to help fund their projects.

Issue No. 5 is the legalization of medical marijuana, a controversial proposal that has its advocates and opponents.

Yet, while people have strong feelings about the issue, this issue alone probably isn’t the reason more people are voting early.

More than likely, if early voting is about what is on the ballot, not just the convenience, the real pull this year may be the many races for the Arkansas Legislature. We can hope that those races are the ones attracting voter attention. They are particularly important this year.

These are the fi rstelections since boundary lines for all of the districts were redrawn, so every seat in both the Senate and House of Representatives is up for election. Some were eff ectively decided by primary election votes, but there are plenty yet to be fi lled.

The legislative races, while fought at the local level, are being watched collectively because control of one or both chambers could shift to Republicans. Gov.

Mike Beebe, a termlimited Democrat, has been helping his party’s nominees; but their Republican foes have been well funded by sources inside and outside the state.

Those will certainly be the races most closely watched as returns start coming in for Arkansas.

So, maybe they’re also stimulating some of this early turnout.

Beyond that, look to city and county races and ballot issues to pull out voters in some locales.

Otherwise, attribute the longer lines for early voting to a continuing shift in voting patterns. Election days aren’t what they once were and may never be again.

BRENDA BLAGG IS A FREELANCE COLUMNIST.