LITTLE ROCK — There are not a lot of what could be termed great matchups Saturday in the SEC, but there are some important games for teams that are starting to think about postseason play.
Last week’s 4-2 record took the season tally to 47-14, but I am taking a shot with an upset of the year in today’s picks.
KENTUCKY AT ARKANSAS We know John L. Smith won’t be back as head coach, and if Joker Phillips doesn’t turn this season around starting Saturday, he probably won’t be back. Lots of talk that Bobby Petrino could be coaching the Wildcats next season. That would tick off Louisville, but the Wildcats like doing that. The Hogs are the walking wounded on defense, but the Mildcats defense won’t be able to handle Tyler Wilson. The Hogs defense will miss Alonzo Highsmith (I went brain-dead and referred to him as Hightower on Thursday) and Tank Wright. The light at the end of the tunnel, though, is not a bus, but an open date and two weeks to prepare for Ole Miss. Arkansas 35, Kentucky 27
SOUTH ALABAMA AT ARKANSAS STATE The Jaguars are 1-4 but have been competitive, especially against Mississippi State. The Red Wolves should have a good crowd as the enthusiasm seems to grow by the day, but there is plenty of room on the Gus Bus. Arkansas State 35, South Alabama 10
ALABAMA AT MISSOURI The Tigers’ introduction to SEC football doesn’t get any better. Alabama won’t run it up on the Tigers, but Nick Saban likes being No. 1 even with all the pressure that goes with it. The Tigers are 2-1 against the Tide and are looking for their first SEC victory, but they won’t find it here. Alabama 35, Missouri 21
AUBURN AT OLE MISS One of these teams has to get its first SEC victory of the year. In the preseason, it was believed the Tigers defense would be greatly improved. It isn’t. It also was believed Ole Miss might not win a game. Well, the Rebels have won three and are looking at a possible bowl game. The edge goes to the Rebels for the Grove, and this is homecoming. Ole Miss 17, Auburn 9
FLORIDA AT VANDERBILT This has all the makings of a trap game for the Gators, who are coming off a huge victory over LSU and have a showdown with South Carolina next week. The Commodores are good enough to pull off the upset, but they would have to do something they haven’t done this season, which is play four great quarters. The Gators have won 21 consecutive against the Commodores, but do they have an answer for Zac Stacy? Vanderbilt 24, Florida 21
SOUTH CAROLINA AT LSU Before the Tigers lost to the Gators, this was looking like a huge problem for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks. But the Tigers are not getting consistent play at quarterback and the defense was gutted early with injuries. South Carolina 21, LSU 17
TENNESSEE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE The Vols may win a conference game, but it won’t be Saturday. The Bulldogs are 5-0 and should be 7-0 when they go to Alabama on Oct. 27. The Bulldogs defense holds Tyler Bray in check. Mississippi State 28, Tennessee 17
TEXAS A&M AT LOUISIANA TECH Another possible trap game as the Bulldogs are 5-0 with victories at Houston, Illinois and Virginia. Both teams have good offenses, but the chink in the armor for the Bulldogs is that their pass defense allows 369.6 yards per game, which has only two teams beat in the national rankings. Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel leads the nation for freshmen in rushing, pass efficiency (162.83), total offense (356 yards per game) and points responsible (21.6). Texas A&M 49, Louisiana Tech 35
Sports, Pages 17 on 10/12/2012