Milder winter forecast in state

LITTLE ROCK — A cooling of the southern Pacific Ocean means Arkansas will see normal rainfall patterns this winter, but higher temperatures will result in less of a chance of snow or ice storms, forecasters say.

Meteorologists originally predicted an occurrence of an El Nino phenomenon, or warming of Pacific waters near the equator, that would have created wetter and colder conditions over the mid-South.

Heavy snows - such as those in January 2000, March 2008, and January and February 2011 - occurred during El Nino years.

But the phenomenon tapered off, and now meteorologists are calling for a “neutral phase” of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation pattern.

“We’re not going to have a winter like last year,” said Joe Goudsward, a National Weather Service meteorologist in North Little Rock. “Last year saw some unique winter events, to say the least.”

Goudsward said he expects the southwestern half of Arkansas to see higher winter temperatures than normal. The northeastern half of the state will see average temperatures.

Although the winter solstice occurs Dec. 21, when the sun is at its southernmost point in the Northern Hemisphere, the National Weather Service considers Dec. 1 the beginning of meteorological winter.

“It looked earlier in the year that we would have a weak El Nino pattern,” said Ken Clark, a senior meteorologist with Accuweather.com in State College, Pa. “But that backed off.

“Now, we’re in a neutral pattern,” he said. “It looks like Arkansas is in a ‘no man’s land.’ Temperatures will be close to normal and precipitation won’t be exceptionally dry, but it won’t be that wet, either.”

Much of the western U.S. is forecast to see higher temperatures this winter. The Eastern Seaboard, from Georgia to Maryland, should see more snow, however, Clark said.

The jet stream, a flow of cold air originating above Canada, is forecast to dip into the U.S. farther east than originally thought. That cold air will clash with coastal storms, meaning snow along the East Coast.

Even though the forecast calls for a milder winter, it doesn’t mean Arkansas won’t see some wintery storms, Clark said.

“Just because you’re in a generally milder pattern doesn’t mean you won’t have some extremes,” he said. “Weather is made up of extremes. It may be dry for a long while, but then you get one big ice storm. That matters.”

Arkansas winters have seen their share of extremes. In 1917, Little Rock had its snowiest winter on record, with 26.8 inches from December through February. Calico Rock in Izard County reported 48 inches of snow in February 1918. On Feb. 25, 1918, the same winter as the deep snowfalls, Little Rock also recorded the highest winter temperature, 87 degrees.

In 1983-84, Arkansas temperatures were below freezing for 12 straight days, from Dec. 19 to Jan. 1. Ice formed on the Arkansas River, and Millwood Lake near Ashdown froze completely over.

Little Rock reported no snowfall during the winter of 1889-90. It was the only time no snow has fallen during winter months since the National Weather Service began keeping records in the early 1800s.

This year, 16 inches of snow fell on Heber Springs Jan. 6 and 7. Little Rock saw 12-13 inches of snowfall those days.

“El Nino won’t be in effect, and Arkansas should see warmer temperatures,” Clark said. “But one extreme precipitation event with cold temperatures will bring a heavy ice storm and people will remember that as their winter.”