What drew state voters to the polls?

Ballot-casting still going down

— The marijuana proposal, President Barack Obama and state legislative races likely prompted voting by the 48.25 percent of Arkansas adults who turned out in the general election, several political scientists said.

The number of Arkansans who voted dropped between the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections, even though the population increased. The number of people who are registered to vote also dropped.

According to the secretary of state’s office, 1.6 million of the state’s 2.23 million residents over age 18 are registered to vote. Of those registered, 1.07 million, or 66.8 percent, cast ballots.

According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, voter turnout dropped by about 5.3 percent nationwide between 2008 and 2012. The drop was especially sharp in New York (12.28 percent) and New Jersey (10.31 percent) - two states that were hit especially hard by superstorm Sandy. In Arkansas, turnout fell about 3 percent.

The percentage of Arkansans who voted in the 2012 presidential race is 10 percentage points less than it was 20 years ago during Bill Clinton’s campaign for his first term.

In 1992, 57.6 percent of Arkansans old enough to vote cast ballots - the highest turnout in at least the past half-century.

Ouachita Baptist University’s social sciences professor Hal Bass said that in both elections, voters turned out because of the candidates.

“In ’92, Clinton’s candidacy brought them out in a positive sense, and this year Obama’s candidacy brought them out in a negative sense,” Bass said. “I do think there is an anti-Obama sentiment in the state that probably brought some folks out to vote against him.”

University of Arkansas at Fayetteville political science professor Janine Parry was surprised by this year’s high voter turnout, considering the state wasn’t a swing state in national politics and didn’t have any contentious statewide races.

“I actually think that’s kind of remarkable. I think it speaks well for Arkansans that they went out and did it,” she said. “Our turnout rates were pretty impressive, considering we weren’t a battleground for the big show nationally.”

Parry conducts the annual Arkansas Poll, which between Oct. 9-14 asked 800 Arkansans about their views. The margin of error statewide was 3.5 percentage points in either direction.

Sentiments found in the Arkansas Poll were close to the actual results in this year’s presidential race. For example, 31 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Obama; 58 percent said they would vote for Republican Mitt Romney; and 11 percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

Romney received 645,489 votes, or 60.56 percent, in Arkansas. Obama received393,197 votes, or 36.89 percent.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson came in third with 16,107 votes, or 1.52 percent.

Art English, political science professor at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said voter turnout this year could have been tied to interest in contested legislative races.

“Everyone was on the ballot,” he said. “That made those races that much more interesting.”

Because district boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 U.S. Census, every House and Senate seat was up for re-election this year, and Republicans made bids for more of those seats than ever before, he said.

Republicans gained a majority of seats in both state legislative chambers for the first time since just after the Civil War.

Parry said the sheer number of House and Senate races drew the attention of outside groups that sent mailers and ran ads on behalf of particular candidates. Parry said one change that may come out of the 2012 election cycle is a diminished importance of retail politics.

“It used to just be you’d go down to the Warren Pink Tomato Festival and shake somebody’s hand,” she said. “But now it’s harder and harder to plant that seed in people’s minds.”

Instead, Parry said, voters are swayed by mailers and ads more than if they have met a candidate.

“It just happened here later than in the rest of the country,” she said.

BY COUNTY

Statewide, 66.8 percent of registered voters cast ballots this year.

None of Arkansas’ 75 counties had less than 50 percent of registered voters turn out.

Izard County had the highest turnout at 77.3 percent. That county had 23 races on the ballot.

Right behind it were Madison County with 75.52 percent; Carroll County, 74.39 percent; Van Buren County, 74.26 percent; Boone County, 73.37 percent; and Little River County, 73.22 percent.

The counties with the lowest turnouts were: Clay, 56.36 percent; Craighead, 56.7 percent; and White, 56.78 percent.

Five counties made up nearly 35 percent of all votes cast in the state this fall.

Pulaski, 160,095 votes, 67.48 percent turnout.

Benton, 79,713 votes, 68.66 percent turnout.

Saline, 47,357 votes, 71.32 percent turnout.

Sebastian, 43,644 votes, 63.79 percent turnout.

Faulkner, 41,835 votes, 61.81 percent turnout.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

The Arkansas Medical Marijuana Act, Issue 5 on the ballot, failed by fewer than 30,000 votes. It got enough support to pass in 13 counties and had 48.57 percent of the state vote.

Bass said the proposed act prompted some people to go vote.

“It was the kind of issue that inspired passions on both sides,” he said.

The Arkansas Poll found that 44 percent of respondents favored the proposal, 52 percent opposed it and 5 percent didn’t know or refused to answer. The percentages were rounded, Parry said.

“It performed so much better than most people were predicting,” Parry said, though she wasn’t sure why.

Parry said people may have been swayed at the polling places to support it when they actually read the text of the initiative, which referred to the specific diseases and conditions that would have been treatable with marijuana. Those listed included cancer and pain.

The Arkansas Poll asked respondents if they would support the medical use of marijuana “for people with certain conditions.” The medical marijuana measure was Issue 5 on the ballot.

Issue 1 called for a constitutional amendment to provide more money for state highways, county roads, city streets, bridges and other surface transportation by raising the state’s sales tax by 0.5 percentage point to 6.5 percent for 10 years. The tax doesn’t apply to groceries.

Issue 1 passed with 58.21 percent of vote. It failed in seven counties, nearly all in north-central Arkansas.

Issue 2 would have allowed cities and counties to form redevelopment districts and to issue bonds paid from increased sales-tax revenue from development in the districts; to issue bonds and levy a sales tax to pay off unfunded liabilities of closed local police and fire pension plans; and to use dedicated revenue sources to pay off loans for buying, constructing, installing or renting property.

Issue 2 failed, receiving 43.38 percent of the state vote. It passed in Clark, Jefferson and Woodruff counties.

CONGRESSIONAL RACES

In 2011, the Democratic controlled Arkansas Legislature redrew the state’s congressional districts, seeking to evenly distribute its 2,915,918 people - as recorded in the 2010 U.S. Census - into the four districts.

On Nov. 6, Republicans won control of all four seats for the first time, but Bass said that party shift possibility is not what drove voters to the polls.

“I just don’t see the congressional races driving turnout in 2012. There had to be something more compelling to drive people out to the polls,” he said.

Arkansas’ U.S. Rep. Rick Crawford of Jonesboro won a second term with 56.3 percent of the 244,903 ballots cast. Democratic challenger Scott Ellington of Jonesboro received 39.07 percent and carried all counties along the state’s eastern border, as well as Jefferson, Monroe and Woodruff counties.

In 2010, Crawford won the district with 51.79 percent of the vote.

Arkansas’ U.S. Rep. Tim Griffin of Little Rock won reelection with 157,988 votes, or 55.21 percent of the 286,156 votes cast and carried six of the seven counties in the district.

Griffin lost in Pulaski County by about 10,000 votes to Democratic challenger Herb Rule of Little Rock, who received 112,936 votes.

In 2010, Griffin won the district with 57.9 percent of the vote.

Third District U.S. Rep. Steve Womack had no Democratic opponent, but faced Libertarian and Green Party candidates. He received 75.9 percent of the 244,758 ballots cast in the Northwest Arkansas district. In 2010, Womack won the district with 72.44 percent of the vote.

The 4th Congressional District seat held by Democrat Mike Ross of Prescott for the past 12 years went to Republican Tom Cotton this fall. Ross, who won in 2010 with 57.53 percent of the vote, did not run for re-election.

Cotton of Dardanelle won the seat with 152,752 votes, or 59.52 percent, and prevailed in 30 of the 33 counties in the district. Democrat Gene Jeffress won in Ashley, Jefferson and Ouachita counties. He received 94,212 votes, or 36.71 percent of the 256,640 votes cast.

Front Section, Pages 1 on 11/25/2012

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