Arkansas’ Red Trend Continues

Aweek out from the general election, Arkansas returns are still incomplete. They are nonetheless telling enough to answer a question posed two years ago.

Then, when Republicans made what were surprising gains in Arkansas, the question raised by some political scientists was whether those results were a fluke or a trend.

As one said, one election does not a trend make.

A second election cycle may not satisfy the harderheaded theorists, but this year’s tallies certainly suggest the answer. The reddening of Arkansas looks like a trend.

Without question, the results were boosted by the introduction of serious outside money into statewide and local Republican races, but there is no reason to expect those sources to dry up in future elections. Nor is there reason to think Democrats would have fared a great deal better without that influx of money for their opponents.

The fact is that more of Arkansas’ counties voted Republican than ever.

There are only a couple of Central Arkansas holdouts, including Pulaski, the state’s most populous county, anda string of counties that hug the Mississippi River Delta that still favored Democrats in key races.

First, remember what happened in 2010.

Arkansans, who have traditionally voted for generic “D” candidates, unexpectedly elected three Republicans to statewide oftce - lieutenant governor, secretary of state and land commissioner.

Voters also elected three Republicans to the state’s four congressional seats and put another Republican in the U.S. Senate.

Federal oftces had been trending Republican but constitutional oft ces had not.

The only other highprofile race on the 2010 Arkansas ballot was for governor. It was the exception in 2010. Voters in all 75 counties favored the re-election of the state’s Democratic governor, Mike Beebe, over his challenger.

A closer look at the returns in the state’s 75 counties showed votersin 28 of them preferred Republicans in fi ve out of six key races - the U.S.

Senate race, their respective congressional races and the four state constitutional races.

Fast forward to 2012. The comparison is apples to oranges because the races are diff erent and fewer, but the reddening trend still shows.

Voters in each of the congressional districts had two high-profi le races to decide: U.S. president and their respective congressional seats.

Of the 75 counties, voters in 66 preferred Republican Mitt Romney while just nine favored re-election of the Democrat, President Obama. The presidential vote in Arkansas is admittedly a continuation of a long-established trend here favoring Republicans for president, with the notable exception of support for Bill Clinton, the state’s former governor.

The congressional election results, however, were evidence of a continuing shift. All four districts elected Republican representatives as voters in all but 14 of the 75 counties favored the Republican over other candidates.

That count includes counties reporting only partial results, but each was trending Republican;

and most, if not all, have voted Republican in past elections.

Final results may alter the picture slightly, but the trend is set.

Now consider the gains the Republican Party made in the state Legislature.

Next year, the Arkansas Senate will have a clear Republican majority and the House either a slim Republican edge or half Republicans. An ongoing recount in one election will decide this week.

The political division in the Legislature is historic.

Not since Reconstruction have Republicans controlled either house of the Arkansas Legislature.

That was 1874. Several generations of Arkansans have come and gone in that 149-year time frame, electing and re-electing a Democrat-controlled Legislature until now.

What happened with these legislative seats is itself the greatest evidence of an underlying political shift. More people in Arkansas voted for a generic “R” than “D” in enough legislative districts to strip control from Democrats in the Senate and possibly in the House.

BRENDA BLAGG IS A FREELANCE COLUMNIST. EMAIL COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS TO [email protected].

Opinion, Pages 5 on 11/14/2012

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