Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in ’14

Monday, November 12, 2012

— As the lone Democrat left in Arkansas’ congressional delegation, U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor finds himself surrounded by Republicans, including a few who may be eyeing his job.

Republican U.S. Reps. Tim Griffin, Steve Womack and newly elected Tom Cotton haven’t ruled out Senate bids two years from now.

And state Republican leaders say they’ll fight to claim the only congressional seat still held by a Democrat from Arkansas.

What are the chances that Pryor will face a Republican challenger in 2014?

“I’d say 100 percent. Maybe 110 percent,” said Republican Party of Arkansas Chairman Doyle Webb. “Someone is going to run, and I anticipate that it will be a very strong and viable candidate.”

When Pryor ran for reelection in 2008, the state GOP didn’t even field an opponent.

“We didn’t have the infrastructure. And by not having the infrastructure, we did not have as much to offer potential candidates to[help them] win. With infrastructure comes confidence, comes money, comes volunteers, comes organization. Now we have those things,” Webb said.

Pryor spokesman Michael Teague said it’s misguided to talk about 2014 when Congress should be focused on averting the “fiscal cliff” - a recession that experts say will be triggered if across-the board spending cuts and tax rate increases go into effect at the end of this year.

“It’s too early. Our nation faces huge hurdles. We have a lot to do in a very short time. We’re going to focus on doing the job, and that’s it. People are sick of campaign talk. People who want to run around and talk about campaigns right now will do so to their own detriment,” Teague said.

Even so, in Washington, D.C., political bets are being cast on the race. The Rothenberg Political Report deputy editor Nathan Gonzales, a Washington-based journalist, says Arkansas could be a battleground in 2014.

“It looks like a ripe opportunity for the GOP, but it’s not going to be easy,” he said. “They’re going to have to get a credible nominee. I would be very surprised if Republicans didn’t make him a top target.”

Gonzales said the fact that Pryor was unopposed in 2008 has allowed him to raise cash and contribute to other senators’ campaigns. He may be able to call in those favors in 2014. However, Gonzales said, candidates often get battle tested in tough races. Pryor,he said, will have to prove that he’s up for a political fight.

“He’s going to face a level of scrutiny he hasn’t faced in years,” Gonzales said.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report, a Washington trade publication, agreed.

“It’s not a good thing to go 12 years without a race,” she said. “Your organization tends to atrophy.”

But, she said, it would probably be a heated race. “Sen. Pryor is not new to this game,” she said. “I expect him to be plenty prepared.”

If a challenger does come from inside the delegation, all six members say it won’t affect the way they interact or work for the state’s interests.

Pryor said he takes pride in the cohesiveness of the state’s congressional group, fostered in part, he said, by his own spirit of bipartisanship.

“I don’t do that left-right, blue-red thing,” Pryor said. “When it comes down to Arkansas issues, we don’t have Democrats and Republicans.”

He says the ability to reach across the aisle extends beyond the state delegation.

Pryor said he has a strong record of bipartisanship, including membership in the “Gang of 14,” a group of senators that worked in 2005 to resolve an impasse that had stalled judicial confirmations. Pryor is also working with Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, on legislation to prevent federal agencies from passing big regulatory changes without holding public hearings.

Instead of repeating the partisan talking points and parroting the party line, Pryor said, he reaches across the aisle to get things done for Arkansas.

He said he hopes that Tuesday’s election results have spelled the end of the intense partisan bickering of the past four years.

“I hope it’s done. I hope it gets better. There’s no guarantee,” Pryor said.

U.S. Sen John Boozman, who was the only Republican in the Arkansas delegation before the 2010 election, predicts there’ll be plenty of cooperation.

“The Arkansas delegation has a long history of really working together,” he said. “I don’t see any reason for that to change.”

Boozman said Pryor and other Democrats treated him well when he was a minority of one. “You always need each other ... in order for us to get things done for Arkansas,” he added.

Griffin, seen by many as the most likely future Pryor opponent, said he considers Pryor a friend.

“He’s my neighbor here in Little Rock. I have a great relationship with Sen. Pryor. Now, I disagree with him on a whole host of issues,” Griffin said.

As to his own political ambitions, Griffin said he will review his options “at some point.” Those will include a 2014 run for governor - a position that will be open when Gov. Mike Beebe leaves it because of term limits.

“I’m not in a hurry. Whatever decision I will make in the future will involve a substantial amount of discussion with my wife and prayer, to be honest with you,” Griffin said.

Cotton and Womack are also said to be looking at a possible run for governor.

“At some time, the three of them will have to sit down and broker a deal,” said Jay Barth, a Hendrix College political scientist and Democratic activist. “A primary [in either race] would be really bad for the [Republican] party.”

Cotton said he is focused on serving as a freshman congressman. He said his goal is “to keep all of the trains running for the people of the 4th District.”

As for any Senate aspirations, Cotton quipped: “It’s funny, I thought I was running for governor. People have a lot of big plans for my life, I just don’t know what they are.”

But he declined to categorically dismiss possible candidacies for either office.

“It’s never a good idea to say never,” Cotton said.

Womack, elected to Congress in 2010 along with Griffin, said his congressional work takes first priority, although “there’s a small universe of people that will probably be looked at for those jobs, and I’m not going to lie to you, obviously because of the job I have right now and my background, I’m part of that universe.”

Womack said he’s received many calls from supporters urging him to seek higher office, most of them for the governorship.

“The Senate is problematical for someone like me. ... Boozman and I have the same ZIP code,” Womack said, adding that “a sensitivity of other parts of the state” might complicate a scenario in which both of Arkansas’ U.S. senators would hail from Rogers. “But, then again, I’m not going to dismiss anything or discount anything.”

The former Rogers mayor said he “loves” his job in Congress aside from Washington, D.C., traffic and the travel. He’ll decide on his future on the basis of where he thinks he’ll be most effective, Womack said.

U.S. Rep. Rick Crawford, who represents east Arkansas’ 1st District, said he had no plans to run for Senate and doesn’t believe his colleagues’ political goals will cause any discord.

But he did offer his own take on what voters might expect from their federal representatives.

“Honestly, I think Arkansans would prefer we do our jobs instead of jockeying for the next political position,” Crawford said.

As he looks ahead to 2014, Pryor said the big difference in the next election will be the likely saturation levels of super political action committees and outside money, a phenomenon that he didn’t have to grapple with in his 2008 re-election effort.

Four years ago, Pryor easily defeated Green Party candidate Rebekah Kennedy, 80 percent to 20 percent.

Pryor noted that outside groups spent $40 million this year in an unsuccessful attempt to defeat Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

“That’s a phenomenal amount of money,” Pryor said. He said he didn’t have any idea yet how much money he would have to raise in 2014.

The latest Federal Election Commission reports filed in October show Pryor with just under $1.8 million in cash on hand.

He’ll likely need far more money in two years, Barth said, because keeping his Senate seat will require “monstrous” amounts of cash.

“There will be national party money, super PAC money. That really wasn’t a factor in [Arkansas’ former U.S. Sen. Blanche] Lincoln’s race. We have no idea what it will mean,” Barth said.

What appears nearly certain is that the 2014 Senate race will be competitive, Barth said.

“There hasn’t been a competitive race in Arkansas in a long, long time. We really have to go back to [Tim] Hutchinson-Pryor in 2002 when there were major investments of resources for a federal race,” he said.

Information for this article was contributed by Frank Lockwood of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

Front Section, Pages 1 on 11/12/2012