What an election.
Republicans taking over the Legislature was the least of it.
Most Democratic state lawmakers here would be Republicans in any other state. That’s been true for decades. The votes that will make a bigger short-term difference went to state highway taxes and retail liquor in Benton County.
Long-term, the Republican sweep of our U.S. House seats is far more important than who will scrape together a state legislative majority in January.
Arkansas politics are changing because Arkansas is changing. Growing areas like ours are largely Republican.
Wilting rural areas of the state are largely Democratic.
Now more than $400 million worth of road money is headed this way. The rest of the $1.3 billion is largely going to other growth areas.
The growth will continue, and even accelerate, thanks to these improvements.
The Republican takeover of the Legislature is merely a symptom of changes we’ve just speeded up.
I’m not surprised the road program passed but am shocked by the margin of it. Sebastian County, which didn’t get a major project, passed this by a slightly larger margin that we did. I see it as a vote for jobs and for a better highway net.
The Bella Vista bypass is a major link in the hoped-for I-49 freeway, for example.
This would greatly benefi t Sebastian County.
On liquor, a growing part of the state found “dry” status to be irksome. They shed it.
Now, for the part of the election that fascinates every pundit but me: Republicans in the Legislature.
The Legislature largely consists of ambitious people, each of whom wouldn’t mind going to Congress someday.
If you have to be Republican to get to Congress, the legislative candidates of the future are going to tend to run as Republicans when they start their political careers.
I repeat, Arkansas Democrats were never “Democrats” by some people’s defi nition.
Now we’ll find out if Arkansas Republicans are “Republicans” by other people’s defi nitions. The most liberal man in Arkansas politics was the late Lt. Gov.
Win Rockefeller, after all.
The welcome mat’s out at Arkansas Republican Party headquarters. The Republicans would have a bigger majority now if they hadn’t been left scrounging for candidates in some races.
Absurd remarks by fringe candidates about deporting Muslims, slavery being a net benefit and such cost them three House seats.
The Democrats must regain east Arkansas’ 1st District and central Arkansas’ 2nd District to stem the migration. The 3rd District is too far gone and so is the 4th. Getting two seats back is going to be very, very tough.
The Democrats learned the hard way in this year’s U.S. Senate elections that they can win without the South. Therefore, the party’s national leadership won’t make the deep compromises required to bring back Southern conservatives.
Southern conservative Democrats will have a hard time unless they come from Arkansas and their last name is Pryor.
The Democrats should be able to win another Arkansas governor’s race despite these trends. Their likely nominee is Attorney General Dustin McDaniel of Jonesboro. He would help get out the Democratic vote in east Arkansas’ 1st District, something a run by former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter wouldn’t do. Much of central Arkansas, where Halter is from, can be relied upon to vote Democratic whoever is nominated.
East Arkansas interest will be especially likely if the Republicans nominate someone from the 3rd District, such as Rep. Steve Womack or Lt. Gov. Mark Darr. If that happens, a race against McDaniel willbecome a race between Northwest Arkansas and everybody else, particularly east Arkansas and liberal central Arkansas. Big and growing as it is, Northwest Arkansas loses races against everybody else.
Asa Hutchinson, the most recognizable Republican statewide who’s not a U.S. senator, made lasting enemies of the most popular Arkansas politicians of the last half-century: Bill Clinton and Mike Beebe. Qualifi ed as Hutchinson is, he may well have more giants in his way than he has smooth rocks. He came out of the 3rd District, too.
U.S. Rep. Tim Grift n is an interesting GOP prospect - but him running for governor would leave his 2nd congressional district seat open. That’s a seat Democrats need. Rep.-elect Tom Cotton of Dardanelle?
Getting elected governor or senator two years after his political debut would be an incredible rise by a largely unproven candidate, but keep an eye on him. I’d argue that Jim Keet is a fine prospect for governor, but after his race against Beebe, he’s known as the Republican who lost even in Benton County. I hope he can recover, but doubt he can by 2014.
Keep an eye on the Legislative session of 2013.
If a real leader for the Republican Party emerges, he or she could show it there.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Opinion, Pages 5 on 11/09/2012