Romney’s veterans advantage

— Gallup released a survey Monday that shows Mitt Romney with a double-digit lead over President Barack Obama among the nation’s veterans. Fifty-eight percent support Romney for president, compared with 34 percent who think Obama should be re-elected.

The Obama team says that it wants to increase its share of the veterans’ vote this time around-and it has begun to emphasize administration measures for veterans-but Gallup’s poll shows that it is in for a difficult fight.

Obama’s deficit makes sense when you consider the demographic composition of veterans: Most veterans are men, and the percentage of men who are veterans increases with age. (Only 9 percent of men ages 18 to 29 are veterans, compared with 57 percent of men ages 70 to 79 and 73 percent of men ages 80 to 89.) Older men are among those groups most likely to vote Republican, and, among veterans, they show the strongest support for Romney-with two-thirds supporting the former Massachusetts governor.

We shouldn’t let that understate the degreeto which younger veterans also oppose Obama: 59 percent of veterans younger than 50 support Romney, which exceeds the over-all total.

The veterans most likely to support Obama are women-47 percent back the president, compared with 42 percent who favor Romney.

The most interesting outcome of Gallup’s survey is the comparison with non-veterans. Among women who are not veterans, the difference is moderate-support for Obama increases to 49 percent. By contrast, the difference for men is huge; Romney’s 22-point advantage with male veterans becomes an even match among non-veteran men, 45 percent to 46 percent.

Indeed, as Gallup points out, Romney’s advantage with veterans accounts for most of his advantage among men writ large. Which is to say, if Obama can improve his numbers with veterans-a tough proposition-he can cut into a key base of support for the expected Republican nominee.

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Jamelle Bouie is a contributor to the Plum Line blog and a writing fellow at the American Prospect.

Editorial, Pages 16 on 05/30/2012

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