COMMENTARY

Europe’s Woes Could Impact U.S. Politics

DEVELOPMENTS IN GREECE, OTHER COUNTRIES COULD TAKE TOLL ON OUR FRAGILE ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Is it all Greek to you?

For many Americans, the precarious economic situation in Greece seems distant and obscure.

Diffcult as it may be to comprehend, it is only a part of the much larger euro zone fi nancial crisis.

While Greece is in the most perilous position, several other European countries - Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain among them - are in deep economic trouble.

That puts pressure on the stronger European nations, notably Germany, to try to hold Europe together.

Moreover, the European crisis poses a threat to the fragile U.S. economic recovery. If matters continue to worsen in Europe, it is inevitable there will be signifi cantly more fallout here.

Greece holds another round of elections next week. If they produce a government not committed to fi scal austerity and structural reform, it likely will lead to further unraveling of the European Union and put the survival of the euro currency union in question. Greece may be called the cradle of democracy, but at this point it is the crucible of crisis. The elections and developments there could have a major impact on elections here and a chain-reaction eft ect could constitute major problems for President BarackObama’s re-election hopes.

Obviously, the status of the U.S. economy will be a central factor in the presidential election.

Obama recently said Europe’s economy is “starting to cast a shadow on our own,” and he is urging decisive European action to keep the euro zone intact and prevent global economic contagion.

This is largely beyond Obama’s control, but the possibility of major global disruption would certainly cloud the political as well as the economic atmosphere.

Although the European economic crisis looms as an especially troubling challenge, it is only one of a number of domestic and international factors, some not even apparent at this point, that could have significant impact on our presidential contest.

Syria, Iran and Pakistan are all hot spots that could become hotter and each entails real dangers.

On Syria, Republican candidate Mitt Romneycalls for action and has attacked Obama for a “policy of paralysis.” However, it isn’t clear what Romney would do difterently, other than talk tougher.

Tragic as the situation in Syria is, unilateral U.S.

intervention would be foolhardy. The last decade brought high human and material costs in Iraq and Afghanistan and limited success. And getting out of countries where we intervene can prove to bemore diffcult than getting in. Despite “tough talk” from Romney and a few other Republicans, there is not much appetite for putting more American boots on the ground.

Some critics have said Obama is “leading from behind” in undertaking military action. However, his willingness to use hard power, particularly drone warfare, and the administration’s success in eliminating al-Qaida leaders, includingOsama bin Laden, led Peter Bergen, author of “Manhunt: The Ten Year Search for bin Laden,” to label Obama as “warrior-inchief.” This record should help inoculate Obama against the usual charges that Democrats are weak on national security.

Romney also wants to talk tough on China, promising that he will play hard ball with Beijing.

Although there is a tendency to make China a scapegoat for our economicills, trying to back China into a corner has never proven productive.

(Remember four years ago when Obama promised to take China “to the mat” over its trade policies.) And the extensive business inter-relationships with China have created a situation where both countries have much at stake in keeping economic relations on track. Though it has slowed somewhat, China’s economy remains relatively robust.

Here again, as with Europe, we are talking about economic and fi nancial issues. There is certainly the possibility that an international political/military crisis could pop up in any of the aforementioned hot spots or in others not yet on the radar.

However, it is the external economic problems, combined with our own lagging recovery, that are most likely to have political signifi cance in our presidential campaign.

The presidency could well hang in the balance.

A Greek tragedy, for example, could have a powerful ripple eft ect here.

The problems in Greece may seem remote and arcane, but it is worth noting that the word “economy” is of Greek origin.

HOYT PURVIS IS A JOURNALISM AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS PROFESSOR.

Opinion, Pages 17 on 06/10/2012

Upcoming Events