McDaniel damage? Early to say

Political forecasters unsure if admitting affair hurts ’14 run

— Several political scientists said Wednesday that it’s too early to know how Attorney General Dustin McDaniel’s gubernatorial bid will be affected by news that he had an “inappropriate relationship” in 2011.

Arkansas public officials have weathered similar scandals with varying degrees of success.

On Tuesday, McDaniel admitted to a relationship with Hot Springs lawyer Andrea Davis. He has been married to his second wife, Bobbi Mc-Daniel, since 2009.

His campaign spokesman said the admission does not change McDaniel’s plans to run for governor in 2014.

Spokesman Tricia Wallace said the statement McDaniel released Tuesday speaks for itself and there will be no further comment on the relationship.

McDaniel isn’t granting interviews and has no public events scheduled until after Christmas, office spokesman Aaron Sadler said. McDaniel was at work Tuesday, he said.

Davis’ ex-husband, Hot Springs doctor Frederick N. Day III, in an Oct. 31 Garland County Circuit Court filing, first disclosed her ties to Mc-Daniel.

Day, who is fighting for custody of a child, asked Davis to admit to several sexual relationships after the marriage ended, including one with McDaniel in 2011 or 2012.

Davis is an attorney in an ongoing federal lawsuit against the state over Arkansas’ School Choice Act. State police are also investigating a homicide at her home in February.

Several donors and supporters of McDaniel’s cam-paign declined to publicly comment Wednesday, but speculated privately about whether the attorney general’s popularity - and his ability to fundraise - would survive the announcement.

Several Democratic legislators also declined to discuss the admission publicly.

Hal Bass, political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, called the news a stumbling block to a candidate many viewed as the likely Democratic nominee.

“It’s obviously damaging, detrimental to his candidacy,” Bass said. “But I don’t think at this point you can say he’s out of the race. I think he can say, ‘I have admitted, acknowledged inappropriate behavior’ and try at least to move on and refocus.”

Democrats hope for a strong candidate to hold the governor’s office in 2014 andreverse their party’s fortunes. In the past two elections, Republicans took control of all four U.S. House seats, both state legislative chambers and three of seven constitutional offices.

Rep. Johnnie Roebuck, DArkadelphia, said she doesn’t know how McDaniel’s admission will affect the race.

“I think only time will tell. He has been forthcoming with his remarks and his admission. I admire him for that. He’s not belaboring it. He said that his family is healing and has asked for patience and prayer and his wife is standing beside him. I think that’s a personal issue that we need to allow that family to work through,” she said.

Roebuck said she still supports McDaniel’s bid for governor.

Rep. Randy Stewart, DKirby, said McDaniel’s admission “opens up some doors for someone who is maybe on the sideline looking for a chink in the armor.”

Stewart said he doesn’t know who that would be. He said he may support McDaniel for governor.

Frank Ovaitt, president and CEO of the Institute for Public Relations, said it is best for a public official or company to be the first to address a public-relations crisis, rather than responding to allegations or media reports.

“If you get out there quickly you can set the terms of the story,” he said. “You can start the conversation yourself and at least define the playing field.”

The Gainesville, Fla.-based group studies the science behind public relations.

Ovaitt said public reaction over the next few weeks will reveal how much long-term harm the admission caused.

“The American people are incredibly, incredibly forgiving when it comes to crises,” he said. “How the story goes and how the public reacts to it in the next few weeks will probably be critically important here.”

Bass said it’s difficult to know the effect of the announcement.

“Arkansas voters are reasonably realistic about their candidates here,” Bass said. “There is an understanding that human beings are flawed, human beings are fallible.”

The last two Arkansas candidates with public indiscretions failed.

In 2001, Republican congressional candidate Jim Hendren lost after he acknowledged he had a year-long affair in 1999.

In 2002, Democrat state Sen. Jon Fitch dropped his gubernatorial bid after acknowledging his first marriage ended in divorce because he had an affair.

University of Arkansas at Little Rock political science professor Art English questioned how much voters will care.

“I think they are forgiving, because we’ve had this happen obviously before,” he said. “This is really early on in the process. It’s not like people will forget but it’s not like it becomes a salient factor. I don’t think it will have any effect on the nomination.”

English said he doubts the news will prompt people to challenge McDaniel for the nomination.

“One would hope that people don’t prey on those kinds of weakness,” he said. But “any time there is a little chink in the armor it does give some people a little bit of hope.”

He said potential challengers may be scared off by the $1 million raised by McDaniel so far.

Donors to McDaniel’s campaign include major players in the Democratic Party, prominent businessmen, political activists and civic leaders, as well as liquor distributors, energy company employees, attorneys and car dealers.

Potential rivals for the Democratic primary include Highway Commissioner John Burkhalter of Little Rock and former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter of North Little Rock. Neither has announced any intention to run.

Potential Republican candidates include former U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson of Rogers; former U.S. Senate candidate Curtis Coleman of Little Rock; state Sen. Johnny Key of Mountain Home; and Lt. Gov. Mark Darr of Springdale.

Information for this article was contributed by Michael R. Wickline of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

Arkansas, Pages 9 on 12/20/2012

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