U.S. census sees illegal-alien drop

Fall nearly a million from ’07 peak

— New census data released Thursday affirm a clear and sustained drop in illegal immigration, ending more than a decade of increases.

The number of illegal aliens in the U.S. dropped to an estimated 11.1 million last year from a peak of 12 million in 2007, part of an overall waning of Hispanic immigration.

For the first time since 1910, Hispanic immigration last year was topped by immigrants from Asia.

Demographers say illegal Hispanic immigration — 80 percent of all illegal aliens come from Mexico and Latin America — isn’t likely to approach its mid-2000 peak again, because of a weakened U.S. economy and stronger enforcement, as well as a graying of the Mexican population.

The immigration shift may have an impact on the future racial and ethnic makeup of the U.S., pushing back official government estimates as to when whites will no longer be a majority in the country. The Census Bureau originally reported in 2008 that white children would become a minority in 2023 and the overall white population would follow in 2042. But the agency has since suggested the tipping points may arrive later, due to a slowdown in mostly Hispanic immigration. New census projections will be released next week.

It all depends “on the availability of jobs as well as changes in federal and state immigration policies,” said Mark Mather, associate vice president of the Population Reference Bureau.

The immigration numbers are largely based on the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey through March 2011. Because the Census Bureau does not ask about immigration status, Passel derived estimates on illegal aliens largely by subtracting the estimated legal immigrant population from the total foreign-born population. The numbers are also supplemented with material from Mather and William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution, who reviewed data released Thursday from the Census’ American Community Survey.

The data showed that 11.1 million, or 28 percent, of the foreign-born population in the U.S. consists of illegal aliens, virtually unchanged since 2009 and roughly equal to the level of 2005. An additional 12.2 million foreignborn people, 31 percent, are legal permanent residents with green cards. And 15.1 million, or 37 percent, are naturalized U.S. citizens.

Fewer Mexican workers are entering the U.S., while many of those already here are opting to return to their homeland, resulting in zero net migration from Mexico.

In 2007, legal and illegal immigrants made up equally large shares of the foreign-born population, at 31 percent, as large numbers of new illegal aliens sought U.S. construction and related jobs during the mid-2000s housing boom.

Foreign-born Asians were a bigger source of population gain than Hispanic immigrants in California, New York, Virginia, Illinois and New Jersey. Newly moving into suburban communities, the Asian population spread out more across the southeastern U.S. and Texas, increasing their share in 93 percent of the nation’s metropolitan areas.

As a whole, foreign-born residents are slowly graying, with 44 percent now age 45 or older. They are more likely than in 2007 to be enrolled in college or graduate school (39 percent, up from 32 percent) and to be single (17 percent married, down from 22 percent).

Births to immigrant mothers also are on the decline, driving the overall U.S. birth rate last year to the lowest in records dating back to 1920.

“At least temporarily, the face of immigration to the U.S. is changing in terms of cultural background, education and skills,” Frey said. “The fertility bump provided by past Hispanic immigrants may not be replicated in the future, especially if Asians take over a greater share of U.S. immigrants.”

Information for this article was contributed by Jennifer Agiesta of The Associated Press.

Front Section, Pages 2 on 12/07/2012

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