State GOP expects big legislative wins

LITTLE ROCK — Arkansas Republicans expect to strip control of seven state Senate seats and at least seven seats in the state House of Representatives from Democrats in Tuesday’s election.

Democrats hold 27 of the 35 Senate seats and 72 of 100 House seats, and they counter that they’ll maintain control of the chambers, though they shy from forecasting how many seats they’ll win.

“I think [state Republican Party officials] are kind of counting their chickens before they hatch,” said Joel Coon, a spokesman for the Arkansas Democratic Party.

House Democratic leader Linda Tyler of Conway put it this way: “We are confident in our candidates, and we are confident in our voters, and we think we are going to continue to have an overwhelming majority in theHouse.”

Chase Duggar, executive director of the state Republican Party, said he believes Republicans will win seven more Senate seats and at least 35 House seats, perhaps more than 40.

The two closest House races are District 45 (Faulkner County Justice of the Peace Jimmy Bryant, a Conway Republican, faces Tyler) and District 61 (former Gov. Mike Huckabee aide Kelly Boyd, a Havana Republican, is running against John Catlett, a Rover Democrat), Duggar said. Term-limited Rep. Nathan George, D-Dardanelle, now holds District 61.

Senate District 18 (Bigelow Republican Jason Rapert against state Rep. Johnny Hoyt, a Democrat from Morrilton) probably is the closest Senate race, Duggar said. Green Party candidate Gregory Slocum of Paron also seeks the seat. Term-limited Bob Johnson, D-Bigelow, holds it now.

Coon declined to get into particular contests - “We are not going to prognosticate on specific races.”

But Tyler said she believes that she and Catlett will win. She disputed Duggar’s suggestion that either race is close.

Duggar said the GOP also has a good shot at ousting several other Democratic representatives, including Monty Betts of Searcy; Steven Breedlove of Greenwood; Joan Cash of Jonesboro; Eddie Hawkins of Vilonia; Jim House of Fayetteville; Buddy Lovell of Marked Tree; and Barbara Nix of Benton.

The GOP’s message of “lower taxes, less bureaucracy, and conservative values is resonating with voters,” he said. “It is a clear alternative to the liberal agenda being pushed and supported by Democrats at all levels of government.”

But, Coon said, the fact is that Arkansas Democrats “have passed the largest tax cut in Arkansas history, continued to balance the budget even as other states with similar mandates have fallen short, and made record investments in the Arkansas education system.”

“What we are seeing in Arkansas is the type of leadership and responsibility that Arkansans have come to expect from elected officials,” he said. “It is interesting to note that the Republicans seem to be relying on shady front groups to attack Democrats instead of standing on their own and running on their records.”

Senate District 18 is one of the races targeted by two independent expenditure committees, Arkansas Conservatives United and the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.

Arkansas Conservatives United, led by former state GOP Executive Director Clint Reed, reported receiving $30,000 from American Majority Action Inc. of Purcellville, Va., and spending $27,613 in direct mail and “media production/mediaplacement” as of Oct. 21.

The group aims to help Republicans in Senate Districts 6, 10 and 18.

In District 6, Greenwood Republican Bruce Holland is dueling with state Rep. John Paul Wells, D-Paris, to succeed term-limited Sen. Ed Wilkinson, D-Greenwood. In District 10, Mountain View Republican Missy Thomas Irvin is competing with state Rep. Current Everett, D-Salem, to take over for term limited state Sen. Paul Miller, D-Melbourne.

“We are playing in Arkansas races because we realize the importance of state and local races,” said Drew Ryun, president of American Majority Action.

American Majority Action is supporting similar independent expenditures in Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he said.

Ryun said American Majority Action, a 501 (c) (4) group, is financed through private contributions. He declined to name any contributors.

“These are races that conservatives have a better than average shot of winning given the current political environment,” Reed said in explaining why the group targeted the three Arkansas Senate districts. “My goal is to ensure that there are adequate resources to communicate the conservative message in these districts.”

The Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, led by Sens. Robert Thompson of Paragould and David Johnson of Little Rock, reported $25,000 from the Senate Democratic Caucus and spending $24,928 on direct mail and printed materials as of Oct. 23.

Thompson said the committee was formed to send out materials promoting Democratic candidates in the seven contested state Senate races this fall, not in response to the formation of Arkansas Conservatives United.

The direct-mail pieces “were all positive [and] they all talked about the qualifications of the candidates,” Thompson said.

He said last week that he didn’t have a copy of a mailer for an Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reporter to examine.

Reed provided copies of Arkansas Conservatives United’s direct mailers and radio ads. Among other things, the mailers touch on issues such as abortion, guns, taxes, and same-sex marriage. The radio ads tie President Barack Obama to the Democratic candidates.

“I may be crazy, but I think I am going to turn out real fine come Tuesday,” said Wells. He said Republican and conservative group attempts to link him to Obama “are a bunch of bull-malarky.

“They have done the same stuff with Johnny Hoyt and Curren Everett,” Wells said, because they voted for legislation under which Arkansas would have pledged its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes nationwide rather than to the candidate who carried Arkansas. Those measures died in the state Senate.

The change in Arkansas’ electoral vote practices would not have taken effect unless other states passed similar legislation.

Wells said, “I will not ever vote for it again. I have been chastised over it by my own family, and I feel like I did that in error, and I will not be voting for it again.”

He said he voted for it because “it just sounded good, one-man, one-vote. I have decided the Electoral College [the current system] is a lot better way to do it than one-man, one-vote.”

The other contested state Senate races are Districts 19 (state Reps. Gene Shelby, DHot Springs, and Bill Sample, R-Hot Springs); 22 (state Rep. Dawn Creekmore, D-Bauxite, and former state Rep. Jeremy Hutchinson, R-Little Rock); 28 (former state Rep. Lenville Evans, D-Lonoke, and Cabot Mayor Eddie Joe Williams, a Republican); and 29 (former state Rep. Sandra Prater, D-Jacksonville, and state Rep. Jonathan Dismang, R-Beebe).

The Democratic committee also reported $2,000 from the state Democratic Party, $1,300 from The Cranford Coalition, and $1,000 apiece from the Arkansas Pharmacists PAC; lobbyist Bruce Hawkins of Morrilton; state Rep. Barry Hyde, DNorth Little Rock; Attorney General Dustin McDaniel; the Poultry Federation PAC; Delta Dental of Arkansas;and Southwestern Energy Co. PAC.

Thompson said the committee reported the list of contributors because, “I didn’t want there to be any question that all or almost all of our money came from in-state.”

Koch Industries of Wichita, Kan., reported $1,498 in independent expenditures through Oct. 23. They were for design and printing of a “state sheet” that lists candidates it supports, employee time, postage and “mailing home addresses of company employees.”

Koch spokesman Melissa Cohlmia said the report “reflects expenditures by Koch Industries Inc., solely for communication with our Arkansas employees about the [forthcoming] state and federal elections.”

Georgia-Pacific, a Koch company, has more than 3,100 employees in Crossett,Rogers, North Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fordyce and Gurdon, she said.

Asked if Koch contributes to American Majority Action, Ryun replied, “Hell, no.”

David Koch of Koch Industries founded Americans for Prosperity, which has been airing ads calling Democratic congressional candidate Chad Causey of Jonesboro “a yes man.”

Some of the races have gotten testy lately. Rapert criticized Hoyt for recently distributing a mailer touting his support of Second Amendment rights (“the right of the people to keep and bear arms”) with the National Rifle Association symbol on it, though the NRA has endorsed Rapert.

“It is plainly a dishonest move,” Rapert said. “Having that [symbol] on there is trying to mislead voters that Johnny Hoyt has a NRA endorsement. I am very disappointed that someone would stoop to the level of trying to hijack my own endorsement.”

But, Hoyt said, the mailer shows he strongly supports Second Amendment rights and he didn’t see anything unusual about putting the NRA logo on the mailer. He said he has a B-plus rating from the NRA and hasn’t heard from the group about his mailer.

“What is misleading with saying I strongly support the Second Amendment?” he asked.

In a letter dated Oct. 23 to Rapert, Anthony Roulette, Arkansas state liaison for the NRA in Virginia, wrote that Hoyt doesn’t have permission to use the NRA’s logo in the mailing.

“NRA takes potential violations of its trademark rights very seriously and this matter has been referred to counsel for further consideration,” Roulette said.

Rapert said he has a double-digit lead in the Senate race based on a recent poll, but Hoyt said he doesn’t buy that.

“Polls can’t vote. Neither can signs. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens in the election,” said Hoyt.

Everett said he’s going to defeat Irvin based on his record as a county judge and state legislator.

“I won’t have to go to Little Rock and ask how I need to vote. I will vote for what is best for my people,” he said.

Irvin said she’ll vote for the conservative values that represent the majority of the Senate district. She pledged not to vote for any tax increases and noted that Everett voted for a tobaccotax increase to help fund an array of health-related programs, including the creation of a trauma care system.

She said her campaign is benefiting from voters frustrations with federal spending and debt, and she’s going to win.

The number of Democrats and Republicans in the Legislature could matter because about 95 percent of appropriation bills need a three-fourths majority to pass: 75 votes in the House, 27 in the Senate . That means most appropriation bills can be blocked by a 26-vote minority in the House or a nine-vote minority in the Senate.

Also, with the sales tax being the most notable exception (it can be raised by a simple majority of 51 in the House, 18 in the Senate), most taxes can’t be raised except by the three-fourths majority, meaning increases can be blocked by 26 in the House or nine in the Senate.

During the past decade, the Senate has been less partisan than the House. But things can change.