LITTLE ROCK — As only the second female U.S. senator elected in Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln often talks of feeling pride in following the “footsteps” of the first, Hattie Caraway.
But she’d like to avoid emulating Caraway’s career too closely - Caraway lost badly in her bid for a third term in 1944.
Lincoln is battling tough odds as she seeks a third term Tuesday against Republican John Boozman and a statewide and nationwide backlash against Democrats and the administration of President Barack Obama.
A Democrat, Lincoln says reports of her senatorial demise, and her party’s, have been exaggerated, although she expects the GOP to pick up seats in the U.S. House and the Senate.
“I think the margins will get tighter in Washington,” Lincoln said. “I don’t think there will be a Republican tidal wave. I feel very good about my race. I’ve worked hard. I think people have slowed down to think about what it is they need in this country and what we need for the state. They can see I’ve been an independent voice and stood up for Arkansas.”
But Boozman predicts “huge gains” for Republicans nationally and in Arkansas.
“From what I’ve seen being all across the state the people are very concerned about the direction of the country,” Boozman said. “They are tying Democrats with that direction and with the Obama administration. They are very unhappy.”
The candidates have been staying busy the past few weeks, each making four or five stops a day.
Today, Lincoln of Little Rock will visit a gathering at New Hope Baptist Church in North Little Rock. Monday she’ll be in Pine Bluff, Stuttgart and Marion.
Boozman of Rogers, who represents the 3rd District in Congress, will spend Monday flying around the state with stops in Fort Smith, Texarkana, El Dorado, West Memphis, Jonesboro and Little Rock.
Democrats now control three of the four Arkansas congressional seats and each of the two Senate seats. They also control all seven of the state’s constitutional offices (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor and land commissioner).
Retirements of Democratic U.S. Reps. Marion Berry in the 1st District and Vic Snyder in the 2nd opened two seats.
Gov. Mike Beebe, a Democrat, is holding strong fundraising and polling leads over Republican challenger Jim Keet.
But down-ballot constitutional offices - lieutenant governor, secretary of state and land commissioner - are viewed as too close to call.
Republicans didn’t field candidates for auditor, treasurer and attorney general.
But several state legislative seats are in play with Republican gains likely.
“Statewide, Democrats have been effectively discredited by national Democrats,” said Hal Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, a Democrat and chairman of the Clark County Election Commission. “It’s just a visceral reaction to the national Democrats with Obama and [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and [Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid.It’s just been toxic for Arkansas Democrats this year.”
Bass said he wrongly expected Lincoln would be in good standing politically after she was named chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee last year. But, he said, “Lincoln’s assets just don’t seem to resonate. [The chairmanship] just does not seem to be much of a factor.”
Only three incumbent U.S. senators have ever been defeated in Arkansas, according to historical records of the secretary of state’s office.
They were:
Caraway in 1944. She came in fourth in a Democratic primary led by U.S. Rep. J. William Fulbright. She received only 13 percent of the vote.
Fulbright in 1974. He received 35 percent in a loss in the Democratic primary to Gov. Dale Bumpers.
Tim Hutchinson in 2002. A Republican, he received 46 percent in a general election loss to Attorney General Mark Pryor, a Democrat.
“The common thread is that, in some way, they became disconnected from the base of Arkansas voters who elected them. They were all perceived as having ‘gone Washington,’ failing to pay enough attention to their home state,” said Jay Barth, a political science professor at Hendrix College in Conway and co-producer of a state political history exhibit.
Barth said Caraway was known as “silent Hattie” and didn’t keep a strong presence in Arkansas. While in Washington, other Democrats grew more powerful back home, including the three that topped her in the primary, Fulbright, Gov. Homer Adkins, and oilman L.H. Barton.
After her defeat, she remained in Washington working as a presidential appointee to the Federal Employees Compensation Commission until her death in 1950, according to Women in Congress, a history by the U.S. House.
Lincoln has been criticized by some for not being more visible in Arkansas. Her official residence is in Little Rock, but she also maintains a home with her husband and two children in Arlington, Va.
Lincoln has remained upbeat as she campaigns around the state, such as last week when she visited North Little Rock city employees, including a stop during a shift change for sanitation workers.
“I’ll make you proud,” she told them.
During her successful Senate campaign in 1998, Lincoln carried a quote by Caraway with her at all times.
It said: “If I can hold on to my sense of humor and a modicum of dignity, I shall have a wonderful time running for office whether I get there or not.”
She no longer carries the quote because she “has it memorized,” a Lincoln spokesman said.
Most polls show Lincoln down by double digits to Boozman. A poll by the University of Arkansas shows her with a 30 percent approval rating, 5 points fewer than Obama’s rating.
“I’ve never lost faith in you and I ask that you not to lose faith in me,” Lincoln says to voters in a television ad released last week.
Lincoln blames the economy for the difficult situation she and other Democrats find themselves in.
“There is no doubt we have come through the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression and that’s what’s really gotten people frustrated,” she said in an interview. “It was caused bya lot of reckless behavior on Wall Street and a lot of over extension in the mortgage industry. Other people have used that as an opportunity to stir the pot. Most everybody knows it didn’t just happen in the last two years. President Obama is not responsible for the economic crisis.”
Lincoln said she’s skeptical things will improve if Republicans take charge.
“All I’ve heard from [Boozman] is ‘no,’” she said. “I haven’t heard any solutions to the problems, any willingness to work together, whether it’s health care or whether it’s Wall Street reform. He was willing to vote for the bailouts of banks but not willing to vote for tough reforms so that Wall Street banks will be more accountable.”
She calls Boozman’s tours of the state the “honk and wave” tour because of his votes against stimulus and other funds for the towns he’s visited. She’s also criticized him for supporting a national sales tax to replace the income tax and allowing people to privately invest some of their Social Security dollars.
Boozman has criticized Lincoln for being the final vote for health-care legislation and for supporting the stimulus which he blames for increasing the deficit.
“Will you help us send the liberal Blanche Lincoln into retirement?” Boozman’s campaign asks in a fundraising e-mail.
But Lincoln’s also made liberals mad by opposing legislation to make it easier to unionize and “cap and trade” legislation to cut down on pollution.
Boozman said Democrats are to blame for not listening to the people.
“The health-care bill is tremendously unpopular,” he said. “[People] do not like it. There has been a tremendous backlash. People don’t like what is in many of the bills being passed. They feel like they haven’t been listened to. They feel like they are against some of this stuff and despite calls and e-mails [Democrats] voted [the opposite way].”
He said Democrats in Arkansas erred by not speaking out more against Obama.
“People in Arkansas are conservative by nature and they feel like if you haven’t been standing up opposing the administration you are part of the problem,” Boozman said. “Democrats have gotten themselves in trouble by not actively opposing the administration and the policies coming out of it.”
He said Democrats are more to blame for the economy because Reid and Pelosi led Congress the last two years of the administration of Republican President George W. Bush.
Boozman said if Republicans take charge as a result of the election, the “economy will get better” provided Republicans “put some confidence back in the system ... and put things in place for fiscal responsibility.”
If not, he said, voters “will hold us accountable” and vote Republicans out.
Through Friday, 237,248 early and absentee votes had been cast.
Front Section, Pages 1 on 10/31/2010