BETWEEN THE LINES State Shift In Congress Looms

Whatever else happens in Tuesday’s general election, Arkansas’ congressional delegation will change - perhaps dramatically.

At least three of this state’s four sitting congressmen will be gone from the House of Representatives. Two are retiring. A third is seeking other office.

Even the fourth could change.

The all-male delegation now is made up of one Republican and three Democrats. There’s a possibility of gender change in two of these seats, but that’s far less likely than that the makeup of the House delegation could flip to one Democrat and three Republicans.

It is the 3rd District that concerns voters here. The current congressman is U.S. Rep. John Boozman, who is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.

His likely successor in the House is Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, another conservative Republican who is more like Boozman than not when it comes to politics, if not style.

Democrat David Whitaker, a former assistant city attorney in Fayetteville, is Womack’s opponent; but the seat has been Republican since the 1960s and that isn’t likely to change this election.

Womack is polling even higher in his race than the only potential survivor from the state’s current House delegation in his re-election bid. U.S. Rep. MikeRoss, a five-term centrist Democrat from the state’s 4th District, is, however, expected to win against his Republican challenger, Beth Anne Rankin, a small business owner, broadcaster and former Miss Arkansas.

The sprawling district, which represents almost all of South Arkansas and reaches northward along the state’s western border, is the only district in which the Democratic candidate appears to be a sure winner.

Republicans could win in both the 1st and 2nd Districts, where incumbent Democrats Marion Berry and Vic Snyder, respectively, are retiring from politics.

The 1st District race is the closer of the two races, pitting Berry’s former chief of staff, Democrat Chad Causey, against Republican Rick Crawford, a businessman, broadcaster and professional rodeo announcer.

Crawford, who actually got in the race before Berry announced his retirement, is leading Causey; but the gap in polls has narrowed tosingle digits.

There is a significant undecided vote (20 percent) in the district that covers all of Northeast Arkansas and much of the state’s Delta. Really, this seat could go either way.

Curiously, the only other district reporting as high an undecided vote is the 3rd; but Womack leads Whitaker by 38 percentage points, compared to Crawford’s 8 percent edge over Causey, based on recent polling by Talk Business.

The 2nd District contest in Central Arkansas is between state Sen. Joyce Elliott, a Democrat, and Tim Griffin, a Republican and former U.S. attorney.

Elliott would be the state’s first African American representative in Congress, if elected; but Griffin leads in pre-election polls, despite some continuing controversy over how he got his U.S. attorney’s job.

For the record, there are also Green Party candidates in three of the races and an independent in one; but none of these candidates are above 4 percent in the recent polls. This year is all about the Democrats and Republicans.

Arkansas has had as many as two Republicans in its House delegation as recently as the 1990s and is likely to meet or exceed that number with next year’s delegation.

BRENDA BLAGG IS A COLUMNIST FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MEDIA.

Opinion, Pages 5 on 10/29/2010

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