ON FILM Feeding Oscar

Arkansas cinephiles play the Academy Awards guessing game

By Philip Martin

Posted: March 5, 2010 at 3:08 a.m.

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LITTLE ROCK — We understand that the Academy Awards have nothing to do with honoring art. Hollywood is a factory town and these awards are the sincerest form of Babbittry; there is nothing magical about these preternaturally pretty people in dinner jackets and gowns. The movies could be better - they are as compromised as any high-profit industry; while talent is involved, Hollywood’s talent is more like that of the cardsharp or the stage magician than the poet’s or the lover’s.

Thankfully, handicapping the Oscars is not really a critic’s job - it’s just a parlor game. We asked some of the usual suspects - avid moviegoers and cinema workers - to play along. It’s in that spirit of frivolity we present these guesses as to who will win what and some speculations as to why - and what should have won.

Our panel comprises: Little Rock Film Festival programmer and Screen Gems columnist Levi Agee (henceforth known as LA); our “armchair critic” Sam Blair (SB); Danny-Joe Crofford (DJC), the producer of 103.7 FM “The Buzz” morning program The Show With No Name; screenwriter Graham Gordy (GG); Karen Martin (KM), theeditor of InArkansas.com; myself (PM); our copy desk chief and invaluable font of cinematic history, Joe Riddle (Joe); new media maven and Movies in the Park founder Blake Rutherford (BR); and director Jay (My Dog Skip, The Water Horse) Russell (JR).

I’ve included what comments and caveats space allows, and I’ll ask our studio audience to keep in mind that flash photography is not allowed at any time as it is dangerous to our performers. This way to the great Egress.

BEST PICTURE

The nominees are: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up and Up in the Air.

The winner is: The Hurt Locker (LA, SB, DJC, GG, KM, BR). Avatar (JR). Up in the Air (Joe). Up (PM).

Comments: Joe is voting with his heart, for nominees he wants to win. SB: “There have been years when five additional slots were needed to reward deserving films; this was not one of them. Nobody knows how the new preferential voting system will affect results for Best Picture. A film with fewer first place votes but the most second- and third-place ones may get the prize.”

The consensus is that only three of the 10 nominees have any shot at winning the Oscar, and that The Hurt Locker probably has a slight edge over Avatar,with Up in the Air presenting a slight upset threat. But I believe the biggest surprise of this year’s Academy Awards will be if there are no big surprises. While my pick isn’t reality-based, if you’re going to separate yourself from the pack you’ve got to pick a couple of upsets.

BEST DIRECTOR

THE NOMINEES ARE:

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Lee Daniels, Precious; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.

THE WINNER IS: Bigelow

(LA, SB, DJC, KM, PM, Joe, BR, JR); Tarantino (GG)

COMMENTS:

Interesting no one voted for Cameron, who’s considered a virtual co-favorite by the handicappers. DJC: “It is possible that this may be a rare year when the Best Picture and Best Director splits.” SB: “Bigelow should become the first woman to win an Oscar for Best Director.” KM: “A lot of people are chattering away about the fact that a woman directed such an honest film about war. Her sex has nothing to do with it. She’s a terrific director. Period.” GG: “I hate the message of Inglourious Basterds but it’s an exceptional film and the most fun I had at themovies this year.”

BEST ACTOR

THE NOMINEES ARE:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

THE WINNER IS: Bridges

(LA, SB, DJC, GG, KM, PM, Joe, BR, JR)

COMMENTS:

Call it the consensus Oscars. SB believes Firth ought to win, but the best five performances were nominated. I would have liked to see Hal Holbrook nominated for ThatEvening Sun.

BEST ACTRESS

THE NOMINEES ARE:

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gaborey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.

THE WINNER IS: Bullock

(SB, DJC, PM, BR, JR, Joe); Streep (LA, KM); Sidibe (GG)

COMMENTS:

SB thinks Mulligan, Streep and Mirren were more deserving than Bullock, but that Sandy will win anyway.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

THE NOMINEES ARE:

Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

THE WINNER IS: Waltz

(LA, SB, DJC, GG, PM, Joe, BR, JR); Harrelson (KM)

COMMENTS:

KM hasn’t seen all of Inglourious Basterds, although she has seen Waltz’sfarmhouse interrogation scene. DJC thinks it possible that Tucci might sneak in. Joe: “Waltz is the reason to see Inglourious Basterds. He is the smoothest villain on film since Orson Welles in The Third Man.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

THE NOMINEES ARE:

Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo’Nique, Precious.

THE WINNER IS: Mo’Nique

(LA, SB, DJC, Joe, BR, JR); Kendrick (GG); Farmiga (KM, PM)

COMMENTS:

The Up in the Air vote will probably split, but I’m sticking with Farmiga. KM: “Clooney is a strong presence in any film, but when Farmiga’s on the screen ... it’s hard to take your eyes off her. Even to look at him.” DJC gives Gyllenhaal a spoiler’s chance. SB misses Julianne Moore, who was great in A Single Man.

OTHER NOTES:

Though not everyone voted in the category, Up was the panel’s pick for the Best Animated Oscar, although KM argues for Fantastic Mr. Fox. Those who saw it thought The White Ribbon would win the Best Foreign Language Award, although KM didn’t care for the movie and BR chose The Prophet (France).

E-mail:

pmartin@arkansasonline.com

MovieStyle, Pages 35 on 03/05/2010

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