COMMENTARY: Alabama To Retain Its Grip

REST OF SEC REMAINS MYSTERY

— Confronted with an overwhelming favorite, horseplayers will dig to the point of nitpicking for any hint of vulnerability. Applying those tactics to Alabama in the Southeastern Conference this fall, I came up empty.

Excluding unpredictable injuries to major players, there is no way to justify picking against the Crimson Tide.

If Nick Saban was not the head coach and Georgia had been able to lure defensive coordinator Kirby Smart away from Tuscaloosa, there would be reason to doubt that Alabama could replace the nine defensive starters lost from its national championship team.

But Saban and Smart guarantee quality, well-coached replacements.

Alabama at the top and Vanderbilt at the bottom are the certainties in the SEC. In between is an indecipherable mess.

Florida should win the Eastern Division, but the Gators were a more confident pick when Tim Tebow was the quarterback.

This week in Hoover, Ala., media members will predict the SEC race, no doubt settling on Alabama and Florida. Both have major challenges on the road, but that is the nature of play in the SEC, and both were 4-0 in league games away from home last year.

To contend for a division championship, 2-2 on the road is a minimum.

For instance, Arkansas, which has not won an SEC road game since the final game of 2007, plays at Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina and Mississippi State.

From Little Rock, here is an absentee ballot, including two road games each team must win to achieve expectations in the SEC:

Western Division

1. Alabama. Two of the best running backs in the SEC, a quarterback who never loses and a big-play receiver on offense; tradition on defense. Road games: Arkansas and LSU.

2. Arkansas. Ryan Mallett should be more consistent and any improvement in the running game will help. Questions remain on defense. Road games: Georgia and South Carolina.

3. (tie) LSU and Auburn. LSU is better on defense; Auburn has an easier schedule. Both need production and prudent decisions from their quarterbacks.

Road games for LSU: Auburn and Arkansas in Little Rock.

Road games for Auburn:

Mississippi State and Kentucky.

5. Mississippi State.

Considering that MSU has both Florida and Georgia from the Eastern Division, another 3-5 SEC record would be acceptable. Road games: LSU and Ole Miss.

6. Ole Miss. The Rebels’ best playmakers are gone and the defense can’t carry the load every Saturday. Road games: Arkansas and Tennessee.

Eastern Division

1. Florida. Tebow isn’t the only player the Gators will miss. Also gone are cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Brandon Spikes. Despite that, the Gators have more talent than others in the division. Road games: Tennessee and Alabama.

2. Georgia. Somebody has to finish second. Why not the Bulldogs? A superb off ensive line will make things easier for redshirt freshman quarterback Aaron Murray. Road games: South Carolina and Auburn.

3. (tie) Kentucky, South Carolina and Tennessee.

If Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State can tie at 3-5 as they did last year, why not a triumvirate in the Eastern Division?

Road games for Kentucky:

Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

Road games for South Carolina: Auburn and Kentucky.

Road games for Tennessee: Vanderbilt and South Carolina.

6. Vanderbilt. Interim head coach Robbie Caldwell has been on the job barely a week. Enough said. Road games: Ole Miss and Kentucky.

HARRY KING IS SPORTS COLUMNIST FOR THE ARKANSAS NEWS BUREAU.

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