BETWEEN THE LINES: Senate Race Not Over Yet

— Yet another poll is out this week suggesting the U.S. Senate race in Arkansas is all but over.

It isn’t, of course. But plenty of people think U.S. Rep. John Boozman’s reported 25-point lead in this poll is tantamount to his November election. Boozman, the Republican who now represents the state’s 3rd Congressional District, is challenging Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

Lincoln, a two-term incumbent, won an extremely tough Democratic primary and runoff in May that she was also widely predicted to lose. Any presumption that the general election race is all but over seems rather premature.

Nevertheless, this latest poll puts Boozman with 57 percent of the vote, compared to Lincoln’s 32 percent. That’s quite a gap, if the poll is an accurate reflection public opinion.

The poll was conducted on Saturday by Washington, D.C.-based Zata 3 among almost 800 likely Arkansas voters. Talk Business commissioned the poll and stands by the results, despite questions as to whether it is a good measurement of what voters are thinking.

The same survey puts Republican challenger Jim Keet within nine points of Gov. Mike Beebe, the Democratic incumbent considered a shoo-in for reelection. Beebe’s numbers came in at 49.5 percent to Keet’s 40.5.

This is a governor with a soaring approval rating, which usually translates into voter support. It is downright impossible to believe Keet is really running so close to Beebe.

Perhaps more telling than the poll about the elections to come, however, were recent fundraising reports for both of theseraces. Those numbers clearly show Lincoln and Beebe with major money advantages over the Republicans.

Lincoln has $1.9 million in the bank compared to Boozman’s $484,000. Beebe has $2.7 million, Keet $59,000 as of the June 30 reporting date.

The surprise in these reports was how comparatively little money Boozman has raised to date, given the strong expectation that he’s likely to be the state’s next senator.

All the national focus on the Arkansas race for Senate, Lincoln’s presumed vulnerability and the chance for Republicans to pick up a key seat should have opened a lot of wallets for Boozman.

The counter argument is that other Republican senatorial candidates with lesser chances for election need the money more.

That’s quickly followed by the assertion that, if Boozman needs money, he will get it.

Count on a well-funded, vigorous campaign between Boozman and Lincoln. It will be a fight to the end, no matter what the poll or the fundraising report says.

This election won’t be, or shouldn’t be, quite the same as that bruising battle between Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter for the Democratic nomination. It will still be intense.

Early strategies suggest Lincoln will concentrate on what she has done and can do for Arkansas while Boozman stresses his conservative credentials ands ties her to the more liberal national Democratic agenda. And they will certainly attack each other’s voting records, since each has a history to defend.

All of that will come, as will outside campaigns against both these candidates. But first look for Lincoln and Boozman to reset their campaigns with image advertising - hers to repair damage from the May elections and his to extend what voters know about him.

Lincoln, the farmer’s daughter who rose to chair the Senate agriculture committee, will point out what she’s been able to deliver to Arkansas as a veteran senator.

Her campaign Website already features a clickable state map that lists funding she has helped secure for each of the state’s 75 counties and for cities within them.

Boozman, whose district includes only 12 of those counties, has a different challenge.

The lone Republican in the state’s congressional delegation, Boozman blew out seven other contenders for the Republican senatorial nomination. Beyond that, he is a relatively blank slate for many voters, most notably the Democrats and independents who were focused on the Lincoln-Halter race in May.

That’s also why the polling seems so out of kilter. Party labels must have factored heavily in the numbers. Voters haven’t had much chance yet to compare the candidates. That will change as both Boozman and Lincoln define themselves - and each other.

BRENDA BLAGG IS A COLUMNIST FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEWSPAPERS.

Opinion, Pages 5 on 07/21/2010

Upcoming Events