COMMENTARY Boozman’s Senate Chances

John Boozman will win the U.S. Senate race if he chooses to get in. I believe he’ll get in.

Friends warned me there is no such thing as a sure thing in politics. They have a point. Take my willingness to risk looking foolish, or more foolish than normal, as a sign of the seriousness with which I approach this topic.

Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln deserves better - much better. Unfortunately for her, the race isn’t about her any more. It is about a majority in Congress that clearly doesn’t care whether she gets re-elected or not. It’s about a majority party in Congress that doesn’t seem to care if President Barack Obama is re-elected or not. They’re hell-bent on health care and other agenda items.

If the Republicans in Congress were ever this truly committed to overturning legal abortion, the Democrats would be screaming about the tyranny.

There was an election in New England. Pundits say it was a bellwether, that it tolled the doom of health care and the Democratic majority. I don’t know if that’s true or not. All I know is that less than 48 hours after this supposed crack of doom, I received a news release from some liberal Democratic group with its hair on fire, screaming that Blanche Lincoln voted for dirty air and telling me what a lousy senator she was.

These people are lemmings, and Lincoln is caught in their stampede toward the cliff.

Notice the complete lack of any speculation - before now - that Boozman might run for theSenate. There he was, the only Republican from Arkansas in any elected federal office and the only guy not in the GOP race for Senate, it seemed.

Suddenly, he confirms he’s seriously considering a bid.

What happened? My guess is that the established Republican Party, state and national, wants the 2nd Congressional District seat very badly. That seat was recently declared open by Vic Snyder, the current occupant, who decided against running for re-election. My guess is that Sen.

Gilbert Baker of Conway, who has good prospects in the Senate primary as long as Boozman stays out, has better prospects in the 2nd District.

I don’t know if Baker would willingly go into a 2nd District race. I do know that Boozman’s sudden change of direction smacks of national and state Republicans appealing to his party loyalty. I expect they will appeal to Baker’s.

Now, as for whether Boozman will run.

John Boozman is too much of a gentlemen to comment in the press that he might run against his long-time congressional colleague, Lincoln, and knock the stuffing out of the other nine GOPhopefuls - including Baker and others whom he knows and has worked with - if he wasn’t very, very serious about this.

He’d win the primary. He’s from Fort Smith. He lives in Rogers.

He’s the U.S. Representative for the rest of the state’s most Republican district. He would appeal to central Arkansas primary voters because he’s the best prospect for a Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas.

He’d win the election. He’ll carry the 3rd District by a 3-to-2 margin against almost anybody.

All he has to do is break close to even everywhere else, which anybody could do if polls are to be believed. I wouldn’t put it past him to win the 4th Congressional District of Rep. Mike “Blue Dog” Ross outright. He’s a rancher.

He’s been against the health care plan since day one and has been against it for the right reason, politically speaking. Every time he brings the subject up, he calls the bill a “job-killer.”

So who would take his place in the 3rd District? We already have one candidate, Bernie Skoch. He can expect a lot of competition if Boozman moves. My first guess was going to be Mayor Steve Womack of Rogers. Then I remembered something. I haven’t seen Asa Hutchinson for a while, but his home’s still in Benton County.

This will be an interesting year.

Arkansas could go from a 5-1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans in Congress to 3-3, practically overnight.

Lemmings, indeed.

DOUG THOMPSON IS EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR.