John Boozman will win the U.S. Senate race if he chooses to get in. I believe he’ll get in.
Friends warned me there is no such thing as a sure thing in politics. They have a point. Take my willingness to risk looking foolish, or more foolish than normal, as a sign of the seriousness with which I approach this topic.
Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln deserves better - much better. Unfortunately for her, the race isn’t about her any more. It is about a majority in Congress that clearly doesn’t care whether she gets re-elected or not. It’s about a majority party in Congress that doesn’t seem to care if President Barack Obama is re-elected or not. They’re hell-bent on health care and other agenda items.
If the Republicans in Congress were ever this truly committed to overturning legal abortion, the Democrats would be screaming about the tyranny.
There was an election in New England. Pundits say it was a bellwether, that it tolled the doom of health care and the Democratic majority. I don’t know if that’s true or not. All I know is that less than 48 hours after this supposed crack of doom, I received a news release from some liberal Democratic group with its hair on fire, screaming that Blanche Lincoln voted for dirty air and telling me what a lousy senator she was.
These people are lemmings, and Lincoln is caught in their stampede toward the cliff.
Notice the complete lack of any speculation - before now - that Boozman might run for theSenate. There he was, the only Republican from Arkansas in any elected federal office and the only guy not in the GOP race for Senate, it seemed.
Suddenly, he confirms he’s seriously considering a bid.
What happened? My guess is that the established Republican Party, state and national, wants the 2nd Congressional District seat very badly. That seat was recently declared open by Vic Snyder, the current occupant, who decided against running for re-election. My guess is that Sen.
Gilbert Baker of Conway, who has good prospects in the Senate primary as long as Boozman stays out, has better prospects in the 2nd District.
I don’t know if Baker would willingly go into a 2nd District race. I do know that Boozman’s sudden change of direction smacks of national and state Republicans appealing to his party loyalty. I expect they will appeal to Baker’s.
Now, as for whether Boozman will run.
John Boozman is too much of a gentlemen to comment in the press that he might run against his long-time congressional colleague, Lincoln, and knock the stuffing out of the other nine GOPhopefuls - including Baker and others whom he knows and has worked with - if he wasn’t very, very serious about this.
He’d win the primary. He’s from Fort Smith. He lives in Rogers.
He’s the U.S. Representative for the rest of the state’s most Republican district. He would appeal to central Arkansas primary voters because he’s the best prospect for a Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas.
He’d win the election. He’ll carry the 3rd District by a 3-to-2 margin against almost anybody.
All he has to do is break close to even everywhere else, which anybody could do if polls are to be believed. I wouldn’t put it past him to win the 4th Congressional District of Rep. Mike “Blue Dog” Ross outright. He’s a rancher.
He’s been against the health care plan since day one and has been against it for the right reason, politically speaking. Every time he brings the subject up, he calls the bill a “job-killer.”
So who would take his place in the 3rd District? We already have one candidate, Bernie Skoch. He can expect a lot of competition if Boozman moves. My first guess was going to be Mayor Steve Womack of Rogers. Then I remembered something. I haven’t seen Asa Hutchinson for a while, but his home’s still in Benton County.
This will be an interesting year.
Arkansas could go from a 5-1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans in Congress to 3-3, practically overnight.
Lemmings, indeed.
DOUG THOMPSON IS EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR.
Opinion, Pages 30 on 01/24/2010
Comments
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SidMcMath says...
This fool once again underestimates Jim Holt, who's leading Lincoln by six points. Not only will Holt win the primary -- and embarrass the national clowns who can't find Arkansas on a map -- he'll win so big the GOP is going to sweep all four House seats this fall. Bye Bye Marion Berry, Bye Bye Mike Ross and Bye Bye John Boozman.
January 24, 2010 at 10:32 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
cdawg says...
.
Doug, you know any more jokes?
.
January 25, 2010 at 2:39 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
moonglow says...
I can't wait for the repubbs to take over Arkansas, then we can go ahead and be annexed by Mexico, and then we can cut off all welfare to anyone but Mexicans.
January 25, 2010 at 7:32 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
BCGuy says...
A study came out recently that showed republicans knew more about current issues than democrats. In other words, republicans had more knowledge on what congress was doing than democrats did. Moonglow is proof of that. Keep on thinking what the news tells you to think.
January 26, 2010 at 8:55 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
John_W_Brewer says...
Everyone guessing and predicting here have failed to mention; John is a good man. Folks up here in District Three have known this for years. Soon all of Arkansas will see for themselves. As will the nation.
Get ahead of the crowd. Check out John's stands on Arkansas' interests, national security, healthcare, and free interprise. You will see that he is still one of us and always will be.
Go John, Go!
January 26, 2010 at 9:09 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Christine says...
John Brewer, how can you say that Mr. Boozman is FOR free enterprise when he voted for TARP against the will of 90% of his constituents and against the Constitution?? Where does the Constitution give him the authority to bail out banks or tax bonuses at 90%? How does using our tax dollars to fund the NEA or pork spending through earmarks support free enterprise? How is voting to fund Amtrak in the Northeast supporting Arkansas's interests? How is it supporting Arkansas's interests when our children and grandchildren are in debt before they're born because John Boozman voted right along with the rest of the big government machine for increasing the national debt into the TRILLIONS and increasing the size of government through more entitlement programs like prescription drugs? How can you keep a straight face and tell us that John Boozman supports the Constitution, limited government, and free enterprise? Mr. Brewer, our national debt which John Boozman helped to increase IS a national security threat!!! China owns us now, and you don't think that's a bad thing?
January 27, 2010 at 8:59 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
tacomaven says...
Brewer: Are you kidding me? John voted for TARP when his constituents BEGGED him not to 9 to 1! That doesn't sound like he's "one of us".
January 27, 2010 at 9:19 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
cdnexpat says...
Boozman is getting out of District 3 because he's afraid he'll lose to Bernie Skoch. The Skoch campaign has been garnering steady support throughout the district and Boozman knows that his voting record on TARP and AIG, his PAC contributors, and votes to raise the national debt limit over several years can't keep the seat in this district. Why he thinks they can win him the senate seat is a mystery. Professional politicians (regardless of their party affiliation) in AR and across the US are realizing that their days are numbered.
January 27, 2010 at 10:33 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
SteveEstrada says...
The funny cry of 'lemmings' is curious. For so long we have been lied to and pandered and boodled by both parties. Boozman is part of the establishment that is more interested in political brownie points than doing what is Constitutional, which is the ONE consideration our elected officials should keep in mind. That and the voice of the People.
Folks like Lincoln and Boozman are weak, venal politicians who have failed us. That is why the hue and cry went up to vote the out bums. This is a People's moevment.
Boozman switched for one reason. He is losing what his ego has considered HIS seat (his own words) to a man who is not a political game player. Now, the County bossess for the Republican party could have taken the will of the people to heart, and asked Bernie to run as the candidate for District three, but since Bernie is honest and NOT a game player, they will cast about for a pair of other folks from the Good Old Boys pool.
Boozman is not a shoo-in for the same reason Coakley wasn't a shoo-in. People are acutally looking at their choices, researching their choices, and choices like Boozman, after the facts are seen, look very weak.
People are not going to be satisfied with a proven RINO.
The only thing Doug got right was the fact that this will be a very interesting year.
January 27, 2010 at 10:44 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
SteveEstrada says...
TARP is just one of many issues that plague Boozman. He also plays a good game in keeping the vets happy with him. He does this when it will cost him nothing in money of political capital. Hardly the benchmark of someone who truly cares, only one that pretends he cares.
To whit, John had a chance to help homeless vets. He had land donated, trailers available, he only lacked the will to do what was right. Instead, the trailers got SOLD to tribes in Oklahoma. How was it in the interets of homeless AR vets to have their homes sold to OK?
Another point, the Boozman bully. At one gun show in Bentonville, John tried to intimidate a couple of voters for passing out flyers. They were not doing anything immoral or illegal, but John's ego just had to try and impose his will on two former voters. He forgot completely about the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, which he SWORE to defend and uphold. John, again, failed.
With a voting record that is straight party and shows a man of no leadership,to an ego to consider a seat his own, to a casual contempt to his former voters, to a demonstrable lack of interest in making his voice heard for District 3,John Boozman has proven beyond any doubt, that he is not fit for any congressional seat. He is tired, worn and corrupted by the corrosive environment of DC.
We can do better, and we the People will.
January 27, 2010 at 11:13 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
MrD says...
It seems that the most reliable information from any news media source is found in the obituaries.
January 27, 2010 at 2 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
FaubNation says...
I wish there was a true unbiased place for inforamtion on the candidates. A place where factual information could easily be compared.
January 29, 2010 at 8:14 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
gdottl_cox.net says...
John and Kathy Boozman are two of the finest people I have ever met and any one who thinks otherwise should take the time to have a one on one conversation with John. I started out on the wrong foot with John and after meeting the man I realized how wrong I was. I suggest all u people who are bad mouthing John should do likewise
January 29, 2010 at 11:04 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
maxxey says...
PLEASE REMEMBER ALL CURRENT MEMBERS OF THE CONGRESS ARE THE CAUSE OF ALL OUR NATIONAL PROBLEMS.
RE-ELECT NO ONR REGARDLESS OF PARTY !!!
WE CAN BE RID OF ALL THE COOKS IN THE HOUSE THS FALL AND IN THE SENATE OVER THE NEXT 4 YEARS.
RE-ELECT NO ONE PEROID !!!!!!!!
January 29, 2010 at 9:37 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
SusieD says...
gdottl - I have done just that and that's when I decided to get involved in finding better representation. Nice guy? Sure. But that's not a resume for a Congressman or Senator. It's a simple matter of his record, both in voting and donations. The picture is clear and there is no reason to not take a hard look at others who are standing up and putting themselves out there, with a heart of service to our country, our state, our district and not focused on a political career and the ties which go hand in hand with that. We can do better, and we will!
January 30, 2010 at 2:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Christine says...
gdottl--Actions speak louder than words. If Mr. Boozman does not do what is right (by growing the size and scope of government against the will of his constituents), it does not matter how "fine" a person he may be. It is his record alone that concerns conservatives. Our national security is at risk now because of our unsustainable deficit that Mr. Boozman voted for.
January 30, 2010 at 7:37 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
MrD says...
Georgie's statement putting the blame on all the voters should be amended by inserting the word "deceived by the press and party loyalty."
February 2, 2010 at 3:31 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
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