Early-test poll gives Huckabee big lead

Straw vote seen as barometer for '12

— Mike Huckabee scored well ahead of the pack in the Values Voter presidential straw poll, collecting more votes, a strong result in an early test of how well potential candidates resonate with social conservatives.

Huckabee collected 28 percent of the vote, grabbing more than twice as many votes as Republican rivals Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin.

"I am always grateful to be honored in such a way," the former Arkansas governor and contender for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination said Saturday from New York City. "But I realize the election and any decision I have about running is a long way away."

Out of 597 total votes, Huckabee got 170. The next four recipients were former Massachusetts Gov.

Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Alaska Gov. Palin and Indiana's Rep. Mike Pence, who got 74, 73, 72 and 71 votes, respectively.

The poll took place during the Values Voter Summit, a gathering of more than 1,800 political activists, in Washington held on Friday and Saturday.

Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, the conservative Washington advocacy group that organized the poll, said Huckabee's strong showing should lead him to do "a lot of real soul searching" about whether he'll run.

Huckabee came in second to Romney in a straw poll that the group held in October of 2007, but when votes cast over the Internet were excluded, counting only the people who showed up in person, Huckabee won. This time, online voting was not allowed.

The vote is but one early barometer of the Republican field in an election more than three years away. It is unclear whether Huckabee will run. But he has stayed in the publicspotlight, through his television show and political action committee.

Usually, Perkins said, candidates "get a little rusty" after they make a presidential bid. Huckabee, on the other hand, "is well-oiled."

"I don't think he missed a beat from where he left off from the presidential election," he said.

THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT

Unlike 2007, Perkins said, Huckabee didn't have to spend much time outlining his biography. He was able to focus completely on hot-button topics.

Voters in the poll strongly identified abortion as the most important issue when deciding for whom to vote.

"They stand for the things that matter to me," Huckabee said, explaining why he did so well.

Religious conservatives have seen their influence in the Republican Party wane since 2004, Perkins said.

That year, he said, former President George W. Bush campaigned heavily on defending traditional marriage and "basically dropped the issue" after he won.

"That had a real dampening effect on voters," he said.

He and other conservatives at the event were confident that they would have more sway in the 2012 race.

Palin, who electrified many Christian conservatives during the 2008 campaign, was noticeably absent from the Values Voter Summit.

The vice presidential pick on the Republican's failed presidential ticket, was invited to the meeting.

Perkins said he "had no idea" why she didn't attend or whether she should be considered a serious contender in 2012. There would, he said, be a "certain crossover" to Huckabee among socially conservative Palin supporters.

To win, Republicans will need a candidate who can inspire the Christian right, organizers say.

Tom Minnery, senior vice president of government and public policy at Focus on the Family Action, the lobbying arm of Focus on the Family, a conservative Washington advocacy group, said Republican contenders in 2008 didn't focus on religion issues enough.

"People are looking for a passionate leader who isn't fearful of talking about religion as well as politics."

Minnery said many conservatives were turned off by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's candidacy.Though he scored points because of his advocacy for a strong national defense, "his divorces, his lifestyle," were a minus, Minnery said.

"John McCain gave no reason for excitement for values voters," Minnery continued. "It was plain that Sen. McCain does not have a vital personal faith religious conservatives can identify with."

ROMNEY AND PENCE

Speakers courting strawpoll voters said Republicans would succeed by sticking to a conservative message.

"Let me make a prediction," Romney told the audience Saturday morning. "For our cause and for all those who speak for this cause with no apology, we're about to seea comeback."

On Friday, Pence told the group that Republicans "didn't just lose a few elections, we lost our way."

He continued: "While some are prepared to write the obituary on our values and our movement, I believe we are on the brink of a greatAmerican awakening."

Speaking right after Pence, Huckabee used the Old Testament story of Elijah to depict the feeling shared by many at the event that conservatives are underdogs.

Elijah seemed to face overwhelming odds when he single-handedly squared off against 450 prophets of Baal atop Mount Carmel.

"He was there outnumbered, laughed at and scoffed at," Huckabee said, "but he said a simple prayer, and the fire fell from heaven."

Like Elijah, Huckabee said, conservatives "may feel outnumbered, outgunned and outfinanced."

Certainly, Huckabee's finances are thin compared with some Republicans who are early contenders.

His political action committee, Huck PAC, raised $305,000 during the first six months of the year, according to government filings. That's far less than Palin, who hauled in $733,000 during the same period, or Romney, who rounded up $2.1 million.

As for whether he actually will run, Huckabee said in response to a reporter's question, "That's a decision I haven't made."

He said his only plans were to continue to host his show on the Fox television network, Huckabee, which dominates Saturday night ratings, and his regular appearances on ABC Radio.

"I've got too much on my plate" to start a campaign this early on, he said.

Since the 2008 presidential primary season, when Huckabee regularly went on jogs with the press corps trailing him with tape recorders and cameras, the former governor has put on a few pounds.

He says jogging injuries forced him to cut back on his exercise regimen, though he's now running up to three miles at a time.

Huckabee is on the road several days a week, either traveling to New York to tape his show or to make pitches for Republican candidates, including Bob Vander Plaats in the Iowa governor's race and Marco Rubio, a Floridian who is running for the U.S. Senate.

AN EARLY SHOWING

To be sure, Saturday's straw poll is only one indication of how the Republican field stands at a very early point in the election cycle. In February, Romney placed first in a straw poll held at the Conservative Political Action Conference, an annual gathering of conservatives.

Huckabee placed sixth, behind Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, Palin and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

The former Arkansas governor fared better in July, claiming first place in a Washington Post-ABC News Poll. Huckabee garnered 26 percent in that survey of 1,001 respondents. Romney, Palin, Gingrich and Pawlenty rounded out the top five of the survey, which had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

"It's an open playing field right now," said Eric Woolson, an Iowa political consultant who ran Huckabee's race in that state in 2008 and led Bush to victory there in 2000. "The challenge is knowing where things will be 2 1 /2 years from now."

Ron Bonjean, a Republican Washington lobbyist and political consultant, added: "It's so early now that we're recycling the contenders in the 2008 election."

He said in a phone interview that Huckabee has done a good job of staying visible through the media. However, "he probably has some work to do to show how his agenda would differ" from other members of the field.

Front Section, Pages 1, 10 on 09/20/2009

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