SPRINGDALE — Perhaps the most telling numbers in the recent Arkansas Poll were these: 76 percent of the respondents answered “not too closely” or “not at all closely” when asked how they’ve followed news about the candidates running for the U.S. Senate.
The seat is held by incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln, who is up for re-election next year and could face any one of several potential Republican opponents and possibly even someone from her own party. Yet, 34 percent of those recently polled are following the candidates “not too closely” and 42 percent “not at all closely.”
The flip side numbers, if you’re curious, say 6 percent following “very closely” and 17 percent “fairly closely.” But the significant numbers are those showing that roughly three out of four people are simply not tuned into next year’s elections.
Challenge most people, even those who think they’re keeping up, to name all the potential candidates who’ve announced their candidacies or flirted with the idea of running for Senate next year and they’ll go scurrying to the Internet to chase down the names. Few of the candidates, save Lincoln, have front-of-mind recognition in their own regions, much less statewide. This Arkansas Poll only reinforces how big a job lies ahead for any of them as they try to establish themselves as possible contenders in 2010.
Directed by political scientists Janine Parry and Bill Schreckhise, the Arkansas Poll is an annual survey done by researchers at the University of Arkansas. Trained interviewers completed 754 telephone surveys to collect thedata, which has a statewide margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. What that means, for the uninitiated, is that the 76 percent of people who indicated marginal interest in the senatorial campaign might actually be as little as 72.5 percent or as much as 79.5 percent.
When the numbers are so lopsided, the margin doesn’t matter much at all. The hard truth for those who would be senator is that a whole lot of folks just aren’t all that interested in next year’s elections - at least not yet.
The same poll shows that respondents do have an opinion of the job that Lincoln is doing.
Her approval rating dropped to 43 percent this year, down 11 percentage points from 2008 and her lowest rating since the Arkansas Poll first tracked her job performance in 1999.
Interestingly, had the respondents voted the day they were polled, more of them said they would have voted for the Democratic Party’s candidate. But that number, 40 percent, was only slightly higher than the number that would have voted for the Republican Party’s candidates, 36 percent. Apply the margin of error there and the contest could be really close - or not.
Something else to factor into any evaluation of this poll isinformation the Arkansas Poll voluntarily passes along about the demographics of the survey participants. They don’t exactly match the state demographics as a whole.
The survey sample was considerably older, 55-64 years old compared with an average age of adults statewide of 35-44 years old. The sample participants were also better educated than the adult population of the state.
There were other variants but those are the most notable.
That said, here’s the usual caveat with polling. Any poll is a snapshot of opinion of those who get called and will answer the questions. The numbers called are randomly selected and in this case certainly included a large enough sample to provide a legitimate snapshot. But it may or may not accurately reflect the electorate’s state of mind.
For one thing, Arkansas Poll respondents are not screened for likely voters. This is a more generalized sampling of opinion and attitude in the state and the senatorial race is hardly its only subject. All the results may be viewed online on the UA Department of Political Science Web site.
The results are worth perusing to know that it’s still the economy, stupid, and issues like jobs and wages that preoccupy Arkansans’ minds and to see how they’re reading the health care debate. Ultimately, it’s going to be Lincoln’s perceived job performance on those issues - as she and her challengers present them - that really will sway the Senate race.
BRENDA BLAGG IS REGIONAL EDITOR AND COVERS GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS.
Opinion, Pages 5 on 11/11/2009
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