THE BROADER VIEW: An eventful political month Obama, Democrats face challenges

By Hoyt Purvis

Posted: August 30, 2009 at 6:08 a.m.

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August has been an eventful month in politics. The last monthof summer is a period when things are expected to be relatively quiet in non-election years. However, that does notalways prove to be the case and this month has been anything but quiet on the political front. It was also marked by the death of Sen. Edward Kennedy, one of the nation's premiere political figures.

How momentous will this month prove to have been and what will the longer-term political impact be?

It has been a difficult month for Democrats, and the loss of Ted Kennedy removes a key player from the Washington scene. It also serves to remind us of the dearth of Democratic leadership in the Senate at a time when President Obama needs strong support there.

After some serious early stumbles, Kennedy developed into a highly effective and respected legislator. He demonstrated a willingness and ability to work across the political spectrum, a quality sorely missing in Congress these days. His was an especially strong voice on health care and prospects for significant legislation on that issue diminished as his health failed. Some have suggested that his death might serve as a catalyst for finally achieving passage of a major health-care initiative.

At a minimum, it leaves the Senate with one less Democrat for now, at least temporarily eliminating the so-called filibuster-proof majority, which was already an overrated factor.

Regardless, as events of recent weeks make clear, passing meaningful health care legislation won't be easy and presents a real challenge for Obama and congressional Democrats. The new president was bound to hit some bumps in the road considering the depth and breadth of issues the nation faces, and after six months in office he looked a little less sure-handed than had previously been the case. Economic and budgetary realities weigh heavily despite some hopeful signs. Conditions in Afghanistan-Pakistan are not encouraging. And the controversy over the explosive issue of interrogation of terror suspects during the Bush administration won't go away, despite Obama's pronounced preference for looking ahead and not behind. The CIA inspector general's report on the Bush-era interrogation practices led Attorney General Holder to conclude that he had no choice but to appoint a special prosecutor to conduct a preliminary criminal review.

It has been the intense haggling and heckling over health care legislation that has been most prominently spotlighted, however, partially because TV news feasts on the confrontational scenes at town hall meetings and because Internet propagandists have spread misleading and sometimes untruthful information.

The Democratic dilemma over health care has given some hope to the beleaguered Republican Party and intensified pressure on Democrats from all sides. One of those feeling that pressure is Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who is up for reelection next year and has already begun campaigning.

There was little doubt that Lincoln would face a Republican challenge, unlike her Democratic colleague Mark Pryor, who didn't have even token Republican opposition in his reelection bid in 2008. Some GOP strategists see recent developments as marking a trend back in the Republican direction and look upon the Arkansas senate race as a critical battleground.

Nationally, while popularity and approval of President Obama and Democrats has declined somewhat in recent weeks, there's little indication thus far that this has redounded to the benefit of the GOP. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed 42 percent of respondents with positive feelings about the Democratic Party, with only 28 percent positive about Republicans.

But, speaking of polls, some recent polling in Arkansas is contributing to Republican optimism about possibly defeating Sen. Lincoln. A recent survey by Public Policy Polling suggests that Lincoln is vulnerable and shows President Obama with a low approval rating in the state. Some quick caveats should be applied to this survey. I don't know that PPP has a track record in the state, and some of its techniques and questions may raise questions. And election day for the Senate seat is still nearly 15 months away. Nonetheless, there is reason to believe that the poll provides a snapshot of public sentiment in late August 2009.

The survey indicates Lincoln's approval rating is only 36 percent, with 44 percent disapproving her performance. This is down from a 45 percent approval in March. By comparison, Pryor has a 47-32 approval/ disapproval rating and Gov. Mike Beebe gets a 63-17 approval. Among Democrats, 62 percent give Lincoln and favorable rating and it is worth pointing out that 37 percent of those surveyed considers themselves as Democrats to 29 percent Republicans.

The poll matched three possible Republican candidates for the Senate against Lincoln and showed all of them running even with or slightly ahead of the incumbent Democrat. The poll also showed that the three - State Sen. Gilbert Baker, Curtis Coleman (an announced candidate), and Tom Cotton are all basically unknown to voters, having miniscule favorable ratings because the overwhelming percentage of those surveyed punched the "not sure" button when asked if they viewed the candidate favorably.

Baker is best known of the three and the Conway legislator has had some success at amassing campaign funds, something that will be essential for a Republican against the already well-funded Lincoln campaign. That assumes, of course, that Lincoln would be the Democratic nominee, which isn't guaranteed, especially since state Sen. Bob Johnson is considering a primary challenge to Lincoln. That could be costly to Lincoln in a variety of ways.

Cotton is the least-known potential Republican entrant for now and is being pictured as a kind of stealth candidate who will sweep everyone away. He has an impressive resume with Harvard Law School and military service in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has enthusiastic backing from figures such as Bill Kristol, a leading neoconservative natterer. But he has had no public exposure in Arkansas, though he will reportedly move back to the state soon.

None of this tells us anything definitive except that Democrats shouldn't take anything for granted. Sen. Lincoln has known all along that she could face a stiff challenge. It is also important to remember that election day is far in the future and much of what happens in the interim - including the state of the economy - will affect election outcomes.

While Lincoln will face some votes in the Senate in the coming months with political consequences, there can also be developments that work to her advantage. One set of possibilities is set in motion by Sen. Kennedy's death. A new chairman will take over the Senate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee, and that could be Tom Harkin, currently chair of Senate Agriculture. Lincoln is a member of Agriculture, ranking fourth in seniority among Democrats. However, those immediately behind Harkin are Patrick Leahy, who chairs Judiciary, and Max Baucus, who heads the Finance Committee.

If Harkin moves to Kennedy's vacated post on the Health-Education Committee, which seems a likely possibility, it is also likely that Leahy and Baucus will retain their positions chairing influential committees, which would open the Agriculture chair for Lincoln. That would be enthusiastically welcomed by the agricultural community in Arkansas, which already tends to be strongly supportive of Lincoln and it could bolster her overall standing in the state. That set of committee shifts could also be influenced by Democratic recognition that it would be helpful to Lincoln's re-election effort to have the chairmanship.

What we know for now is that Democrats have hit a rough patch and there are some reasons why Republicans might draw some encouragement for future prospects. However, it is way too early to count Lincoln out or to count Obama down.

Hoyt Purvis is a journalism and international relations professor and served as press secretary to Sen. J.William Fulbright, foreign/defense policy adviser to Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd, and as chairman of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board. His column appears on Sundays.

Opinion, Pages 5 on 08/30/2009

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